A Fleeting Opportunity
Relations between America and Russia have been rather tense lately - but I won’t recap the gory details here. Suffice to say that recent headlines have featured pointless knuckle rapping by both sides almost daily.
But today, during a private meeting with President Bush, President Putin made an offer of obvious interest and import to the ’stanosphere.’ Basically, he proposed to collaborate with America on a missile defense shield in Azerbaijan to avert the need for one in Europe. (The plan for a European missile shield is a major source of the current mud-slinging between Russia and America.)
For a whole variety of reasons, this proposal is unlikely to actually be implemented. According to the New York Times, “The plan would require the kind of intense cooperation in which only the closest allies could engage.” The fact that this sort of trust does not exist right now between Russia and the United states is cited as a reason that the plan can never work. But what if a Russian-American missile defense shield in Azerbaijan precipitated a new level of strategic cooperation between Russia and the United States? What if Russian and American policy and military leaders became accustomed to sharing information, training together, and coordinating political and tactical strategy?
At this point, the reader may be wondering what exactly this has to do with Central Asia. In short, everything. As Vasili Rukhadze explained so well in a recent post, whether the West likes to admit it or not, Russia is now preeminent in Central Asia. Bogged down in the Middle East, America and Europe’s interest in the region has been limited and temporary. Realistically, Central Asia will have to deal with its geographic neighbors first, meaning primarily Russia (China does not yet seem to be playing a major political role). A military partnership between Russia and the US - especially one located on the doorstep of Central Asia - could change this equation dramatically.
American and Russian objectives in Central Asia are not so dramatically opposed as popularly portrayed, and there is no fundamental reason the two countries could not cooperate in Central Asia. Both countries are committed to opposing militant Islam, both favor stability in the post-Soviet space, and both have a stake in the global economy. It seems that there are too many Cold War bureaucrats left over in the foreign affairs ministries of both sides. The Cold War is over, and there is no Great Game (or if there is, it is a childish one).
I am not making a prediction here; I don’t disagree with the arguments that this is unlikely to actually happen for political reasons. Rather, I am suggesting that today witnessed an opportunity - however fleeting - for a fundamental shift in Central Asian geopolitics. An integration of Russian and American military strategy would close the space for Central Asian leaders to play the two powers against one another, and though such a close relationship with Russia could dilute the message a bit, it would unify the force behind human rights and democratization initiatives and improve chances for regional economic integration.
Perhaps more importantly, such a pivotal shift would have a whole host of less predictable consequences about which I won’t even speculate. While some might dispute whether the Azerbaijan deal would be beneficial for the region, few would debate its importance. It will therefore be interesting to watch how events progress (or more likely, don’t progress), and the consequent impact on Central Asia.
on June 9th, 2007 at 12:38 am
At least one Kyrgyz commentator from the Bishkek-based Institute for Public Policy thinks Putin’s proposal could open the door to greater US/Russia cooperation between Kyrgyzstan’s two foreign airbases.
on June 9th, 2007 at 2:48 am
“But what if a Russian-American missile defense shield in Azerbaijan precipitated a new level of strategic cooperation between Russia and the United States? What if Russian and American policy and military leaders became accustomed to sharing information, training together, and coordinating political and tactical strategy?”
My predition is that this will not happen. Not at least when Putin is in power. The end of the Cold War and what had ensued, left Russki “Patriots” with a bitter aftertaste.
The collapse of the Soviet Union brought chaos and humiliation for once proud and relatively prospering nation. THey lost their influence in the world and in FSU territories.
Especially painful for Russians was the loss of influence over Eastern Europe (Poland, CzechoSlovakia, Bulgaria, Romania and their last outpost-former Ugoslavia).
I believe that in majority of these countries (and especially in Czech Republic) Russians were never popular. So when Eastern Europe looked at the fall of Soviet Union as liberation, I am sure some Russki “patriot” hearts and minds could do nothing but blame the US for their demise.
It so happens that these folks are now running the country now and are trying desparately to re-establish the old “glory” of Russia in the world politics.
With oil prices high and having a monopoly over gas supplies to Europe this has never been easier. I think that basically these two factors are the main drivers behind the recent not-so soft rhetorics. Missle defence system was just a trigger event.
All this put aside, I think there is a HUGE gap between how Russians see the world and how Americans view it and that gap is virtually impossible to bridge.
That alone in normal folks in Russia creates some kind of prejudice against Americans. I have many times come across folks who would just say “I just don’t get Americans”.
In short expect colder relationships bw Russia and the US. This is sad, but hey it is better to know who is your friend and who is not now.
I think the US is in denial about Russia’s true attitude or it is playing a dumb/delicate game (you choose which based on information available to you and your personal inclination).
PS: Regarding cooperation in CA. I am afraid that plan is flawed since Russians think that CA is their “territory of influence” and see no other country as having a role. Same goes for Caucasus. Look at what is happening with Georgia (which is trying to break away from Russian influence) and you will know what I mean.
on June 9th, 2007 at 2:55 am
“But today, during a private meeting with President Bush, President Putin made an offer of obvious interest and import to the ’stanosphere.’ ”
I heard this morning the US president could not attend the G8 meeting because he felt sick. I wonder if Mr.Putin’s offer had something to do with it ;)
Would someone please check the President for traces of plutonium?
on June 9th, 2007 at 8:50 am
I won’t speak for James, but I agree with you for the most part, Tajik Boy. No world-changing cooperation is going to come of this. Putin’s most likely playing for time, but if any party pushes the step even slightly further, there could be some interesting effects. Or at least, some charming method acting.
on June 11th, 2007 at 10:33 pm
Tajik Boy,
Thanks for your comments. As I say in the post, I agree that this is not likely to happen. I wrote the post to highlight a path (probably) not to be taken.
This I am less inclined to agree with. Compared to whom? The Europeans? Iranians? Chinese? Of course there is some gap between the world views of any two cultures, but in this case I think it is far from insurmountable.
Nonpon,
Thanks very much for pointing out that interesting article. Good to know I have an ally in Kyrgyzstan (Муратбек Иманалиев)!
on June 12th, 2007 at 11:06 pm
“Compared to whom? The Europeans? Iranians? Chinese? Of course there is some gap between the world views of any two cultures, but in this case I think it is far from insurmountable.”
Point well taken, but my emphasis was not only on the gap itself (sorry if that was not conveyed clearly in my post). it is clear that if any two nations focus on similarities they could make something out of it (hey look how the US and Saudis co-operate).
I wanted to point out the unwillingness of Russians (and their government) to come to terms with the fact that they lost the Cold War and are now a developing country (although they are included in G8, I think this is just a political favor).
When we take this attitude of them, consider their inherent xenofobic nature to anything/anyone that is not Russian or more or less ex-Soviet, add to the equasion their grief about losing their influence in the world (and blaming the US for it) and put that all into historical tensions betwen the two countries, it becomes clear that the US has better chances of landing a deal with Al-Qaeda than bridging a gap with Russians.
That’s just my opinion.