Tajikistan and Russia, formerly "strategic partners", are now haggling over the same piece of cheese. Image by Flickr user ladyb (CC-usag).

Everyone loves free cheese. How about free tanks and Kalashnikovs?

Russians have an interesting word for this: khalyava.  Until recently it was a general assumption that Tajikistan would always receive armored vehicles, aircraft, and personal weaponry  from Moscow, and hundreds of its students were attending Russian military colleges, all for khalyava.

However, the situation is now changing drastically. Moscow is going to sell its weapons and equipments to Tajikistan at world market prices, which are very high, and will ask Tajikistan to pay tuition and board for each Tajik student who is attending a Russian military college.

The free cheese for this, the poorest post-Soviet country, was given as a sign of philanthropy and special friendship (“‘strategic partnership”).  But then Dushanbe officials, who always obey Moscow, saw how their counterparts in Bishkek were cashing in on hosting fees for the American and Russian bases in Manas and Kant.  Now Tajikistan has been demanding that Russia pay hosting fees for its base; Moscow is responding tit-for-tat.

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, for the first time in his presidency, declined to attend a Moscow summit this past February (he later changed his mind and took a fishing trip with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev).  Meanwhile, the Russian state-controlled press has been lambasting Tajikistan with articles entitled “Tajikistan is offering Russia Love for Money”.  When word inevitably got out that Russia will be paying for Kant, Tajik media responded with headlines like,  “Are these monetary payments for love?”

Medvedev visited Tajikistan at the end of July and promised to review the money issue.  Evidently a solution was found: Russia will now formally monetize all its military ties with Tajikistan.  Medvedev’s aide Sergei Prikhodko emphasized that Tajikistan’s armaments are 100% Russian-made.  Speaking to Kommersant a few weeks ago, he remarked,

[The] Russian Federation will discuss with Tajikistan the conditions to the accommodation of its base in Tajikistan and the provision of Tajik army with the Russian military technical equipment in a package.

There is now deep concern in Dushanbe: what if Russia does pays some symbolic rent money, but sends a large expensive bill for the tanks, aircrafts and other military equipment? After all, Tajikistan did not buy the equipment — it was originally received as a gift.  Also, according to the Tajik Defense Minister, Sherali  Khairulloev in an interview with Asia-Plus, 1750 Tajiks have studied at the Russian military colleges during last several years.  This education could be as expensive as $20 000 to $180 000 per year.  Indeed, the minister himself is a Russian-educated, strongly pro-Russian Tajik official. He speaks better in Russian than in Tajik, and has many Russian friends, particularly in the Russian military establishments.

Parviz Mullojonov, an independent Tajik expert, counters that the free Russian military technical equipment is a myth.  Specifically, Russian officials like to point to the agreement signed amongst the CSTO members but forget to add that there are significant amounts of restrictions.  For instance, acquired military equipment must be received only by the national units included into collective rapid deployment forces.  In such situations only will the price be the same as it would be for the general Russian military. Another important restriction is that if the country leaves the pact then the privilege will be liquidated and the differences between export and agreed prices rewritten as a state loan.

Hence, it is not such a huge loss for Tajikistan to agree with the Russian proposals. The same goes for the cost of educating the Tajik officers, which Tajikistan could afford and had been actually been paying for up to 2005.  Russia unilaterally made education free to counteract similar programs in France and India.  Indeed, the quality of the Russian-educated officers in comparison with those who attended French and Indian military schools is considerably inferior, says a military expert in Dushanbe.

Ultimately, the main question now is how much will Russia pay to rent huge fenced areas in three parts of Tajikistan — near Dushanbe, in Kulob, and Qurghonteppa?  Keep in mind that the garrison of Russian soldiers in Tajikistan is the largest military base outside Russia. (Russian Defense Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov visited Dushanbe over the weekend for long discussions behind closed doors.  A source tells me that Tajikistan wants $300 million annually.)

Consider the Okno space surveillance complex in Norak, 68 kilometers east of Dushanbe, a unique optoelectronic space object tracking system which Russia took over in 2004 for a fee of only  Russia took over this unique optoelectronic space object tracking system in 2004.  Right now Russia pays only $0.30 a year!  Yet, Tajikistan had been asking $50 million annually; it agreed to Russian conditions when Moscow promised to write off $242 million of Tajikistan’s debt and to invest over $2 billion in the country’s economy in exchange.  The debt was written off, but Tajikistan did not receive $2 billion investments.

In sum, the rent for the military base could not be as big as Tajiks think.  They should ask themselves who is enjoying the khalyava now, when the country is suffering through the global recession?  They would do well to keep in mind the Russian proverb that free cheese can only be found in a mouse-trap.