If Beijing gets gassy, Central Asia may get friendly
Business and Economics, Cross-regional and BlogosphereNo Comment
Photograph by Flickr user Jackanapes (CC-usage).
Editor’s note: As the new year approaches, neweurasia debates whether an economically and politically unified Central Asia makes sense (much less if it’s even possible). neweurasia’s Annasoltan discusses whether the new pipeline to China will bring the region’s leaders closer together — or tear them apart.
Is the new gas pipeline drawing Central Asia’s leaders — normally the uneasiest of neighbors in the best of times — closer? I asked some experts for their opinions.
Western countries and others involved in the Nabucco pipeline are fretting that they may lose the region, especially Turkmenistan, to China. But Robert Ebel, director of the energy program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C, remarking to me on this subject, feels that there is no reason to be concerned:
We all know that China is rapidly developing country that needs a lot of energy. Turkmenistan can provide a part of that as an available supplier and that’s not a problem for the EU or the US.
As to China’s needs for gas, Michael Lelyveld, a correspondent with Radio Free Asia, remarked to me:
China’s major fuel is coal, consuming three billion tons a year. But because coal is highly polluting and gas is much cleaner, China wants to increase gas imports. Instead of importing gas from Russia, it is going to buy almost half of its gas from Turkmenistan.
Indeed, China has invested an enormous amount of 20 billion dollars into the pipeline, but Lelyveld says that whether China wants political influence or strategic power in exchange for the investment remains to be seen.
One thing that China does expects rom the gas cooperation seems to be support for its policies on the Uighurs, a Muslim population in China’s western Xinjiang region. But even if China isn’t seeking regional power right now, it may be compelled to do so because of its position as the end-recipient. Lelyveld remarks,
China has taken on a big task but also a big responsibility because the gas pipeline flows through Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, and these countries do not get along well, [frequently] feuding over electricity and water supplies. [They are] now expected to cooperate on gas to China. The question is whether they will cooperate enough to serve China’s interests.
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