Editor’s note: Dordoi is the largest market of Central Asia, but with the establishment of the new Customs Union between Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, it’s experience a fall in sales, reports neweurasia’s Rahat. “While the debate goes on among Kyrgyz politicians and private sector, Dordoi businessmen ponder on their future,” he writes. “Once a certain and profitable trade now seems doomed, and sadly, may be headed in the direction of legends.” Photographs by Rahat (CC-usage).

Dordoi is a huge market made of metal containers with the total square of equal to 250 hectares. The monthly rent for a container ranges from 2,000 soms to 175,000 soms (40 USD to 3500 USD) depending on the location within the market. Dordoi consists of several markets, dozens of food courts, mosques, exchange offices, baths, small sewing factories, huge warehouses and taxi stations. The market employs around 100,000 people.

Everyday huge Chinese trucks (30-40 tonnes each) — veritable Titanics on wheels — cross the Kyrgyz border and arrive in Dordoi. The cargo is then distributed among sellers. According to recent independent research, in 2010 the amount of goods shipped from Dordoi abroad was about 270 mln USD per month. These goods are subsequently shipped to all major cities of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the Russian Federation (Barnaul, Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk, Chelyabinsk).

Ninety percent of the goods in Dorboi are imported from China and the remaining 10% from Turkey, UAE, South Korea, Greece and Iran. Salymbekov, the owner of Dordoi, is one of the few USD-calculated billionaires living in Kyrgyzstan, and he was one of the first entrepreneurs in the world to intuit the importance of trade with China, the world’s biggest exporter.

Since the mid-1990s, the Kyrgyz Republic has become a major transportation hub of Chinese goods destined for Central Asia. In 1998, Kyrgyzstan become a member of the World Trade Organization, which helped facilitate a rapid inflow of Chinese goods into the country, as WTO membership allowed the Kyrgyz Republic to re-export these goods to the rest of the region.

However there is a threat looming above Dordoi, and that is the creation of the Customs Union between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. This means that there will be significant impediments to Kyrgyz re-exports. Indeed, in the nine months since the Union’s establishment, sales at Dordoi have plunged by, according to various estimates, between 20% and 70%.

At the current rate, even the lower figure means 100,000 Dordoi employees risk losing their jobs. The very possibility of that poses a new challenge to the fragile economic and political situation in the country, which is still struggling to recover from the upheavals of 2010. Indeed, this number of unemployed and angry people is enough to overthrow any Kyrgyz government.

The Kyrgyz government is trying to decide whether it should to become a member of the Customs Union or continue to be Central Asian hub for Chinese goods. Membership does have some advantages, such as low customs fees for local producers and increased inflow of very-needed fuel, flour and sugar, as Russia and Kazakhstan are the main suppliers of these staples to Kyrgyzstan. However, the Union will also inflate prices here, while the population is already struggling with nearly 20% inflation, not to mention raising the problem of inconsistency with the WTO’s rules on non-discrimination.

While the debate goes on among Kyrgyz politicians and private sector, Dordoi businessmen ponder on their future. Once a certain and profitable trade now seems doomed, and sadly, may be headed in the direction of legends.