While the usual discussions about political cobwebs and oil business intrigues kept the Kazakhstani bloggers busy, two dramatic incidents stood out: A rocket crash potentially threatening the health of thousands of people and the murder of a Russian blogger made the Kazakhstani blogosphere think about the value of a human life.

But politics first: Andy-taker draws attention to the fact that ministers in Kazakhstan are being shuffled, migrating from one government to another, without particular affixment to their profession. Pretty much the same happens on lower levels; maybe this is the reason for the people’s dissatisfaction with the officials?

After visits to a number of government bodies and agencies, Astanchanka is left very angry: “Bureaucrats are just killing me! They are rude and ignorant - ridiculously explaining this with low salaries and tiredness. Gorbachev was right: Citizens should start Perestroika from themselves” (RUS).

Raseyannaya from Ekibastuz (a town in Central Kazakhstan) is indignant towards those officials who are skeptical about non-traditional religions, consider Krishna followers as extremists and want to introduce religious education in schools. “Our state is secular”, she reminds people, “and even if I want to worship a Steam Iron, nobody shall have any objections” (RUS).

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The citizens of Kyrgyzstan, a nominally Muslim country, have an interesting history with Islam: While the nomadic Kyrgyz haven’t really been introduced to the religion before the 18th century, Kyrgyzstani Uzbeks from the Ferghana Valley practice a more traditional form of Islam. During the Soviet era, religion was pushed to the sidelines of society, but Islam has seen some revival since Kyrgyzstan’s independence in 1991, again mostly in the southern rural parts of the country.

Hajj pilgrims heading to Mecca from Osh, southern Kyrgyzstan. By Flickr user teokaye.

Last week, Kyrgyzstani bloggers were worried about the threat of Islamisation in their country. The debate was the result of an interdepartmental commission’s decision to allow Muslim women to wear hijabs for their passport photographs. (more…)

Originally posted on Global Voices

China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will send their heads of state to Kyrgyzstan next week. While the Kyrgyz bloggers are amazed by the beautification of the capital ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organiation Summit, Western bloggers ponder the significance of the organisation’s growth.

The heads of states will land at the capital Bishkek’s Manas airport. The road into town is the scene of some hectic beautification work, which LJ user morrire documents in pictures:

In fact, the whole town is undergoing some crazy last-minute construction frenzy. Azamat comments:

The Mayor of Bishkek, as the main implementer, has done “incredible” things: whitewashing trees and facades of buildings on the road from the Manas Airport to Bishkek and the main streets in Bishkek. As with buildings’ being painted only on frontal sides, so are the trees, as you can see from the morrire’s picture […]. If only these changes were regular and less superficial, we would be living in another country.

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Tajikistan is celebrating the 10th anniversary of signing the “General Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and National Reconciliation” which ended a five year fratricidal war. This war was a tremendous disaster for the whole Tajik nation which caused thousands of deaths and economic losses for billions of dollars.

While Rahmon receives congratulation-letters from around the world and in his speeches points up to the successes of Tajikistan reached after signing the agreement some other eminent people seem not to be happy about these results and think that it is far not enough to secure the established peace.

Saifullo Safarov, deputy director of the Tajik president’s Centre for Strategic Studies, says that the peace in Tajikistan is “as stable as possible” thanks to a rise in the level of national awareness. But he warns that stability could still be undermined by poverty, incompetent economic management, drug trafficking, terrorism, the illicit arms trade and human trafficking.

Dodojon Atavullo – one of the main opponents of President Rahmon says that the Peace Accord has been constantly violated. This agreement, in his opinion, ‘was successful in stopping the fighting but did nothing else.’

Mudiddin Kabiri, the leader of Islamic Revival Party is also not satisfied with the policy of the current government and says that ‘if everyone thinks peace is a fact and the country won’t go back to this [civil conflict] and so … they are mistaken.’

“From our point of view the violations of the agreement and continuing violations generally concern political matters. If future elections will again be like the 2005 parliamentary elections we will look at that as a violation of the peace accord. I think the spirit of the peace agreement should always be on everyone’s mind in Tajikistan.”

Before the anniversary President Rahmon signed a Law on amnesty to release former militants who fought against the government during the civil war. Rahmon all the time mentions this act in his recent speeches. This amnesty was dedicated to the 10th anniversary of signing the Peace accord.

However some of the former leaders of Tajik opposition, like Mahmadruzi Iskandarov, seem not to be included in the list. Previously the Democratic Party of Tajikistan was hoping their leader to fall under the declared amnesty. In addition to the former militants there will be released many other people who did not participate in warfare – old and ill people, women.

Ian at Beyond the River makes an excellent roundup related to the 10th anniversary of signing the Peace Accord. He calls it a Truce Anniversary.

Since my last post on the topic when the news was just breaking, several experts have written some interesting and informative commentary that readers might be interested in.

First, I would point you in the direction of NonPon’s post on the subject if you haven’t already seen it. They translate part of an interesting article (Rus) in which a Kyrgyz talking head, infected with optimism from the proposed Azerbaijan deal, proposes a Kyrgyzstan-moderated union between the Russian and American bases in the country.

The most recent Central Asia - Caucasus Analyst features several articles on the “Gabala Gambit.” Stephen Blank emphasizes the practical difficulties of military cooperation between the US and Russia: (more…)

Relations between America and Russia have been rather tense lately - but I won’t recap the gory details here. Suffice to say that recent headlines have featured pointless knuckle rapping by both sides almost daily.

But today, during a private meeting with President Bush, President Putin made an offer of obvious interest and import to the ’stanosphere.’ Basically, he proposed to collaborate with America on a missile defense shield in Azerbaijan to avert the need for one in Europe. (The plan for a European missile shield is a major source of the current mud-slinging between Russia and America.)

For a whole variety of reasons, this proposal is unlikely to actually be implemented. According to the New York Times, “The plan would require the kind of intense cooperation in which only the closest allies could engage.” The fact that this sort of trust does not exist right now between Russia and the United states is cited as a reason that the plan can never work. But what if a Russian-American missile defense shield in Azerbaijan precipitated a new level of strategic cooperation between Russia and the United States? What if Russian and American policy and military leaders became accustomed to sharing information, training together, and coordinating political and tactical strategy?

At this point, the reader may be wondering what exactly this has to do with Central Asia. In short, everything. As Vasili Rukhadze explained so well in a recent post, whether the West likes to admit it or not, Russia is now preeminent in Central Asia. Bogged down in the Middle East, America and Europe’s interest in the region has been limited and temporary. Realistically, Central Asia will have to deal with its geographic neighbors first, meaning primarily Russia (China does not yet seem to be playing a major political role). A military partnership between Russia and the US - especially one located on the doorstep of Central Asia - could change this equation dramatically.

American and Russian objectives in Central Asia are not so dramatically opposed as popularly portrayed, and there is no fundamental reason the two countries could not cooperate in Central Asia. Both countries are committed to opposing militant Islam, both favor stability in the post-Soviet space, and both have a stake in the global economy. It seems that there are too many Cold War bureaucrats left over in the foreign affairs ministries of both sides. The Cold War is over, and there is no Great Game (or if there is, it is a childish one).

I am not making a prediction here; I don’t disagree with the arguments that this is unlikely to actually happen for political reasons. Rather, I am suggesting that today witnessed an opportunity - however fleeting - for a fundamental shift in Central Asian geopolitics. An integration of Russian and American military strategy would close the space for Central Asian leaders to play the two powers against one another, and though such a close relationship with Russia could dilute the message a bit, it would unify the force behind human rights and democratization initiatives and improve chances for regional economic integration.

Perhaps more importantly, such a pivotal shift would have a whole host of less predictable consequences about which I won’t even speculate. While some might dispute whether the Azerbaijan deal would be beneficial for the region, few would debate its importance. It will therefore be interesting to watch how events progress (or more likely, don’t progress), and the consequent impact on Central Asia.

Welcome to another roundup of military and security news from Central Asia. We’ll begin with the military expansion of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), comprised of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which plans to increase the size of the Central Asia-based Collective Rapid Reaction Force. The CSTO has also recently held security discussions with Afghanistan, and plans to build an air-defence network to cover the member states. For the moment, however, it appears that Iran is unlikely to join.

The US Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan has recently had to deny that the US plans to use Manas air force base in any possible attack on Iran. The base is particularly controversial as the US has refused to give up the American airman responsible for the shooting of a Kyrgyz citizen at the base gates in December. The shooting is one of a number of recent incidents which have fed into a growing anti-Western mood in Kyrgyzstan. The recent request for Russian help in guarding Kyrgyz borders may be an indication of a Kyrgzstan’s future strategic orientation.

In Uzbekistan, officials with backgrounds in security and law enforcement are increasingly coming to dominate the government. The regime has also used terrorism and smuggling as reasons to establish buffer zones along Uzbekistan’s borders, particulalry in the Fergana valley. In a more puzzling development, the ex-head of Uzbek army intelligence has been sentenced to 20 years in jail for passing secrets to Russia.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s new military doctrine has been published, setting out its ‘multi-vectored’ strategy. There’s more analysis of the Kazakhstan’s strategic balancing act between the West, Russia and China here.

There appears to be little sign of the post-Turkmenbashi thaw in Turkmenistan, as the security services are putting even more pressure on the the few remaining NGOs. This comes despite the sacking of the head of the presidential security service, who was one of the most powerful figures of the former regime. On the foreign policy front, President Berdymukhammedov has signalled a possible end to the Turkmenistan’s self-imposed isolation, and is reaching out to Russia, the US, and regional neighbours.

The Tajik foreign minister has again stated his country’s strategic partnership with Russia, while seeking closer ties with China, the EU and US, particulary over security matters. Internally, the Tajik government has been clamping down on conservative Muslims, who it accuses of ‘extremism’. Three Tajik men were sentenced last month to 19 years in jail for their membership of the IMU, while an Iranian citizen has been arrested in Dushanbe, accused of recruiting teenagers to be given terrorist training abroad.

Welcome to another roundup of security and defence news in Central Asia. We’ll begin with a new report on military spending, which have increased massively across the region compared to last year. Kazakhstan leads as the biggest spender, with a defence budget of $1.2 billion for 2007, almost double that of 2006. Uzbekistan is close behind on $902.4 million, and Turkmenistan has received almost $500 million in weapons purchases and upgrades from the Ukraine in exchange for gas. Tajikistan and Kyrgzstan are still heavily reliant on Russian forces for security, and hence their defence budgets are minimal in comparison.

Is the Fergana Valley still playing host to Islamic militant groups? IWPR gives an in-depth look into the question. Meanwhile, a weapons bunker believed to have been used by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan has been uncovered in the Tajik part of the Fergana.

China certainly seems convinced of the threat, and has recently stepped up security on its borders with Kyrgzstan and Tajikistan, claiming that ‘international terrorists’ have been infiltrating Xinjiang. This follows the raid in early January on what China claims was a East Turkestan Islamic Movement training camp, in which 18 Uygurs were killed. Der Spiegel has more on the Chinese government’s strategy for Xinjiang, which mixes rapid economic development with a crackdown on Uygur separatists.

In Kyrgyzstan, the US has given a long-term commitment to Manas air force base, which it says will be needed as long as operations in Afghanistan continue. The Kyrgyz government currently receives $17.4 million a year for the rent of the base, although President Bakiev had apparently asked for $200 million.

The security implications of the death of the Turkmenbashi and the rise of Gurbanguly Berdimukhamedov to the Turkmen Presidency are not yet clear, although it appears the policy of neutrality will be maintained. EurasiaNet reports that Russian officials have moved quickly to ensure that Turkmenistan’s energy policies will remain orientated towards Russia.

Russia has also been working on its relations with Kazakhstan. The Kazakh government plans to totally modernise and restructure its armed forces by 2015, and will be relying heavily on Russian equipment and expertise to do so. Kazakhstan has also been maintaining friendly, if much more distant, relations with NATO.

Tajikistan has also been reaching out abroad, signing a new treaty with China with important economic and security implications. In addition, President Rakhmonov’s recent Middle Eastern tour marks Tajikistan’s efforts to secure closer relations with the Arab world. Security cooperation with NATO nations is being maintained, however, as shown the presence of French forces at Dushanbe airport, and a continuing series of military exchanges with the US, such as this Virginia National Guard training mission. Meanwhile, the difficult job of clearing mines left from the civil war continues.

A recent RAND study highlights one of the chief dilemmas of Western policy in Central Asia - to what extent does security assistance to developing countries bring positive change? Uzbekistan is singled out as an example of US-provided legal and police training proving ineffective at improving the human rights situation. Having since turned away from the US, Uzbekistan’s relations with Russia are now closer that ever, as demonstrated by a new deal giving Russia basing rights at Navoi air force base.

Welcome to another roundup of developments in the field of press freedom. We’ll begin with an interview with Elsa Vidal of RFE/RL, who highlights the difficulties faced by journalists in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan.

Focusing first on Azerbaijan, Reporters Sans Frontieres has written an open letter to President Chirac, asking that he raise the issue of the deteriorating freedom of the Azeri press during President Aliev’s upcoming state visit. Eurasianet and RFE/RL have more background on the crackdown, which includes the beating of an opposition journalist. Two others journalists have been jailed for ‘insulting Islam’ in an article which also earned them a fatwa from an Iranian cleric, calling for their death.

In Armenia, the repercussions continue from the murder of Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink. Could his murder open the way for an easing of tensions between Turkey and Armenia? Meanwhile, a shortage of newsprint has caused problems for Armenian newspapers, and some believe that lack of printing material is politically motivated.

Also in the Caucasus, the Georgian media is coming to terms with the arrival of Rupert Murdoch’s News International corporation in Tblisi, as well as a new government-supported bill which may limit journalistic freedoms.

On the other side of the Caspian, there’s hope that the death of Turkmenbashi will lead to an easing of controls on the media. The acting President, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, has promised to lift restrictions on the internet, promising to make it “available to every person in the country.” RSF has also published an open letter to Berdymukhammedov, urging “significant changes as regards press freedom and free expression.”

In Kazakhstan, President Nazerbaev’s eldest daughter Darigha has been re-elected Chairwoman of the Congress of Journalists, and has promised to fight restrictive changes to Kazakh media laws. Also in Kazakhstan, an RFE/RL journalist has been arrested by the Kazakh financial police, and Leila reports on the first-ever trial of a Kazakh blogger, accused of insulting the President. However, the US government is cutting the budget for the Kazakh language station of RFE/RL, believing that freedom of speech is relatively secure in Kazakhstan.

State Secretary Adakhan Madumarov of Kyrgzstan has been in the news, defending the state television service MTRK against opposition plans to make it a public station. Meanwhile, ‘technical problems’ dogged the independent media during the November political crisis. The websites of two news agencies came under attack from hackers, and two TV stations had their transmission equipment damaged.

The state-run media of Uzbekistan has hit upon a novel method of covering the country’s fall in the rankings of the UNDP’s Human Development Report - they have simply ignored it. The Uzbek government is also carrying out more checks on the legal status of media outlets, and on the neweurasia Uzbekistan blog, Tolkun points out the hypocrisy of the country’s media laws, which expressly prohibit censorship. Nevertheless, there is some good news - journalist and human rights campaigner Ulugbek Khaidarov has been released from prison. His friend and fellow dissident Jamshid Karimov, currently incarcerated in a Samarkand mental hospital, has been given honourary membership of the English Centre of International PEN, who intend to campaign on his behalf.

Finally, there are also some encouraging signs in Tajikistan. IFEX reports that the Tajik press freedom situation improved during 2006, and a new internationally-sponsored community radio programme is allowing ordinary Tajiks to have their say on pressing social issues such as HIV/AIDS, drug addiction and domestic violence.

As Registan.net draws attention to an article in the euobserver, it seems Central Asia is rather high on the agenda of the EU. There is just a problem: We do not hear anything about it.

Central Asia has been mentioned in a couple of corners of the Internet. Let’s start with the website of the EU itself. The starting point should be the website of the Directorat General for Foreign Relations on Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

To my knowledge the latest info that can be found on strategy concerning Central Asia is for the time between 2000 and 2006. Not too exciting and rather general.

The next point I turned to is the work program of the German EU-presidency from January until end June 2007. In there, Central Asia is mentioned on page 5 around three times, still in very general terms.

Where to turn next? The German Foreign Office actually has some more detailed information on the plans concerning Central Asia during the next few months. Those who don’t speak German will be disappointed but I would like to give you a short outline (latest update 12/01/07):

• Relevance of Central Asia for Europe and Germany: Central Asia has strategic relevance for Germany and Europe. This is mainly connected to its location (Afghanistan, continental transport) and issues that are quite common in that region (drug trafficking, so-called terrorism).
• Objectives of the EU in Central Asia: Again stability and security is mentioned as the main priority. This concerns the borders but also resources, and not only oil and gas but also water. The policies concerned are energy (anyone surprised?).
• EU Central Asia strategy: Relating to existing initiatives in Central Asia the article admits that there is no coherent strategy for the region but that there must be one to meet the demands of the diversity of the region. In connection with the relations to Russia, the EU should include this part of the post-USSR region into its strategy.

The article closes with the aim to have a draft strategy ready by June 2007.

What is missing
After reading this article and the other bits from the net there are a couple of questions that should come to the mind: Aren’t some aspects missing? What about support for human rights, building of capacity and good governance as well as more democratic structures? Wasn’t there something to it in the last 6 years, when the EU invested into the building of institutions through the cooperation of civil society and the government? And also the aspect of poverty reduction, which had quite a prominent position in the last strategy of the EU, was not mentioned.

Altogether it is disappointing to think about the EU strategy in Central Asia for now. A link that could be slightly recommended is the website of the Europa House in Uzbekistan and there the page with links for further readings on civil society. It is well sorted and has links to articles going a little deeper in what the EU could do in Central Asia, which doesn’t mean that it will.