There’s new talk of a New Great Game unfolding in Central Asia. The thing that made me post on this, to me unfamiliar, terrain of geopolitics was a news report in yesterday’s UK Times. The piece quoted the head of the British army Sir Richard Dannattin in the context of British forces facing a “generation of conflict” in Afghanistan:

[He] gave warning of the dangers posed by a “strident Islamist shadow” and suggested that the British Army was “on the edge of a new and deadly Great Game in Afghanistan”.

Discussing the speech on BBC Radio 4’s Today show, Dr. Michael Denison of Leeds University said that Sir Dannatin’s remarks should be read as that British security interests can only be maintained by fighting in “remote and treacherous areas abroad”, and on a tactical level by “local deal-making, attrition and espionage”.

Well, although Sir Dannatin only mentioned Afghanistan in his speech, the return to an oldschool-19th century “Tournament of Shadows” might also be an appealing story for the odd sensationalist journalist predicting a clash between the NATO-West and the SCO-East in Central Asia. (more…)

Since my last post on the topic when the news was just breaking, several experts have written some interesting and informative commentary that readers might be interested in.

First, I would point you in the direction of NonPon’s post on the subject if you haven’t already seen it. They translate part of an interesting article (Rus) in which a Kyrgyz talking head, infected with optimism from the proposed Azerbaijan deal, proposes a Kyrgyzstan-moderated union between the Russian and American bases in the country.

The most recent Central Asia - Caucasus Analyst features several articles on the “Gabala Gambit.” Stephen Blank emphasizes the practical difficulties of military cooperation between the US and Russia: (more…)

Relations between America and Russia have been rather tense lately - but I won’t recap the gory details here. Suffice to say that recent headlines have featured pointless knuckle rapping by both sides almost daily.

But today, during a private meeting with President Bush, President Putin made an offer of obvious interest and import to the ’stanosphere.’ Basically, he proposed to collaborate with America on a missile defense shield in Azerbaijan to avert the need for one in Europe. (The plan for a European missile shield is a major source of the current mud-slinging between Russia and America.)

For a whole variety of reasons, this proposal is unlikely to actually be implemented. According to the New York Times, “The plan would require the kind of intense cooperation in which only the closest allies could engage.” The fact that this sort of trust does not exist right now between Russia and the United states is cited as a reason that the plan can never work. But what if a Russian-American missile defense shield in Azerbaijan precipitated a new level of strategic cooperation between Russia and the United States? What if Russian and American policy and military leaders became accustomed to sharing information, training together, and coordinating political and tactical strategy?

At this point, the reader may be wondering what exactly this has to do with Central Asia. In short, everything. As Vasili Rukhadze explained so well in a recent post, whether the West likes to admit it or not, Russia is now preeminent in Central Asia. Bogged down in the Middle East, America and Europe’s interest in the region has been limited and temporary. Realistically, Central Asia will have to deal with its geographic neighbors first, meaning primarily Russia (China does not yet seem to be playing a major political role). A military partnership between Russia and the US - especially one located on the doorstep of Central Asia - could change this equation dramatically.

American and Russian objectives in Central Asia are not so dramatically opposed as popularly portrayed, and there is no fundamental reason the two countries could not cooperate in Central Asia. Both countries are committed to opposing militant Islam, both favor stability in the post-Soviet space, and both have a stake in the global economy. It seems that there are too many Cold War bureaucrats left over in the foreign affairs ministries of both sides. The Cold War is over, and there is no Great Game (or if there is, it is a childish one).

I am not making a prediction here; I don’t disagree with the arguments that this is unlikely to actually happen for political reasons. Rather, I am suggesting that today witnessed an opportunity - however fleeting - for a fundamental shift in Central Asian geopolitics. An integration of Russian and American military strategy would close the space for Central Asian leaders to play the two powers against one another, and though such a close relationship with Russia could dilute the message a bit, it would unify the force behind human rights and democratization initiatives and improve chances for regional economic integration.

Perhaps more importantly, such a pivotal shift would have a whole host of less predictable consequences about which I won’t even speculate. While some might dispute whether the Azerbaijan deal would be beneficial for the region, few would debate its importance. It will therefore be interesting to watch how events progress (or more likely, don’t progress), and the consequent impact on Central Asia.

Welcome to another roundup of military and security news from Central Asia. We’ll begin with the military expansion of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), comprised of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which plans to increase the size of the Central Asia-based Collective Rapid Reaction Force. The CSTO has also recently held security discussions with Afghanistan, and plans to build an air-defence network to cover the member states. For the moment, however, it appears that Iran is unlikely to join.

The US Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan has recently had to deny that the US plans to use Manas air force base in any possible attack on Iran. The base is particularly controversial as the US has refused to give up the American airman responsible for the shooting of a Kyrgyz citizen at the base gates in December. The shooting is one of a number of recent incidents which have fed into a growing anti-Western mood in Kyrgyzstan. The recent request for Russian help in guarding Kyrgyz borders may be an indication of a Kyrgzstan’s future strategic orientation.

In Uzbekistan, officials with backgrounds in security and law enforcement are increasingly coming to dominate the government. The regime has also used terrorism and smuggling as reasons to establish buffer zones along Uzbekistan’s borders, particulalry in the Fergana valley. In a more puzzling development, the ex-head of Uzbek army intelligence has been sentenced to 20 years in jail for passing secrets to Russia.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s new military doctrine has been published, setting out its ‘multi-vectored’ strategy. There’s more analysis of the Kazakhstan’s strategic balancing act between the West, Russia and China here.

There appears to be little sign of the post-Turkmenbashi thaw in Turkmenistan, as the security services are putting even more pressure on the the few remaining NGOs. This comes despite the sacking of the head of the presidential security service, who was one of the most powerful figures of the former regime. On the foreign policy front, President Berdymukhammedov has signalled a possible end to the Turkmenistan’s self-imposed isolation, and is reaching out to Russia, the US, and regional neighbours.

The Tajik foreign minister has again stated his country’s strategic partnership with Russia, while seeking closer ties with China, the EU and US, particulary over security matters. Internally, the Tajik government has been clamping down on conservative Muslims, who it accuses of ‘extremism’. Three Tajik men were sentenced last month to 19 years in jail for their membership of the IMU, while an Iranian citizen has been arrested in Dushanbe, accused of recruiting teenagers to be given terrorist training abroad.

Welcome to another roundup of security and defence news in Central Asia. We’ll begin with a new report on military spending, which have increased massively across the region compared to last year. Kazakhstan leads as the biggest spender, with a defence budget of $1.2 billion for 2007, almost double that of 2006. Uzbekistan is close behind on $902.4 million, and Turkmenistan has received almost $500 million in weapons purchases and upgrades from the Ukraine in exchange for gas. Tajikistan and Kyrgzstan are still heavily reliant on Russian forces for security, and hence their defence budgets are minimal in comparison.

Is the Fergana Valley still playing host to Islamic militant groups? IWPR gives an in-depth look into the question. Meanwhile, a weapons bunker believed to have been used by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan has been uncovered in the Tajik part of the Fergana.

China certainly seems convinced of the threat, and has recently stepped up security on its borders with Kyrgzstan and Tajikistan, claiming that ‘international terrorists’ have been infiltrating Xinjiang. This follows the raid in early January on what China claims was a East Turkestan Islamic Movement training camp, in which 18 Uygurs were killed. Der Spiegel has more on the Chinese government’s strategy for Xinjiang, which mixes rapid economic development with a crackdown on Uygur separatists.

In Kyrgyzstan, the US has given a long-term commitment to Manas air force base, which it says will be needed as long as operations in Afghanistan continue. The Kyrgyz government currently receives $17.4 million a year for the rent of the base, although President Bakiev had apparently asked for $200 million.

The security implications of the death of the Turkmenbashi and the rise of Gurbanguly Berdimukhamedov to the Turkmen Presidency are not yet clear, although it appears the policy of neutrality will be maintained. EurasiaNet reports that Russian officials have moved quickly to ensure that Turkmenistan’s energy policies will remain orientated towards Russia.

Russia has also been working on its relations with Kazakhstan. The Kazakh government plans to totally modernise and restructure its armed forces by 2015, and will be relying heavily on Russian equipment and expertise to do so. Kazakhstan has also been maintaining friendly, if much more distant, relations with NATO.

Tajikistan has also been reaching out abroad, signing a new treaty with China with important economic and security implications. In addition, President Rakhmonov’s recent Middle Eastern tour marks Tajikistan’s efforts to secure closer relations with the Arab world. Security cooperation with NATO nations is being maintained, however, as shown the presence of French forces at Dushanbe airport, and a continuing series of military exchanges with the US, such as this Virginia National Guard training mission. Meanwhile, the difficult job of clearing mines left from the civil war continues.

A recent RAND study highlights one of the chief dilemmas of Western policy in Central Asia - to what extent does security assistance to developing countries bring positive change? Uzbekistan is singled out as an example of US-provided legal and police training proving ineffective at improving the human rights situation. Having since turned away from the US, Uzbekistan’s relations with Russia are now closer that ever, as demonstrated by a new deal giving Russia basing rights at Navoi air force base.

Neil Arun of BBC News ventured to Albania in search of several former Guantanamo inmates who the US feels are eligible for release but too dangerous to repatriate as they’d almost certainly face torture back home (nice how the US is paying so much attention to their prisoners’ (enemy combatants) human rights).

Among those that arrived in Albania’s capital Tirana are Uighurs, Uzbeks, Algerians, Tunisians, Egyptians and Libyans. The tales of some of these former prisoners are captivating. In corners of the world where geopolitics and local realities mesh up to produce some rather strange stories, nothing could better encapsulate this than the odyssey some Uighurs embarked on several years ago.

Der Spiegel reported last July:

Abu Bakker met Adel Abdulhehim — the man with three children back home — in Kyrgyzstan. Six years younger than Abu Bakker, Adel had already been imprisoned a number of times. His brother-in-law was one of the organizers of the February 1997 demonstration and was later executed. The two men decided to go to Turkey, where they had an Uighur acquaintance who owned a leather goods factory.

In mid-2001 they traveled through Tajikistan, then crossed the border into Pakistan. To save money, they decided to travel by bus, which meant they would need a visa for Iran. Because Pakistan often sends Uighur refugees back to China, the two men decided to wait for the visa in neighboring Afghanistan. They had heard about a group of Uighurs who lived in a camp not far from the Afghan city of Jalalabad, just across the border, where they hoped to stay until their visas arrived.

According to the Uighurs, the camp was nothing more than a run-down refugee camp with some decrepit huts. The US government, however, believed it to be an al-Qaida training camp. The rest is history.

Editor’s Note: What follows is part of a cross-blog survey that explores what Central Eurasia might look like fifteen years from now.

0400 hours, December 20, 2021. The Pentagon

US Secretary of Defense Zalmay Khalilzad strode through the winding halls of the Pentagon rubbing sleep from his eyes. He had been summoned to the Situation Room yet again, which was no real surprise; ever since the Third Gulf War two years ago, it had been one crisis after the next.

“Report,” he barked.

“Sir, the Islamic Republic of Turkestan has invaded Turkmenistan.”

“And Kazakhstan’s response?” Khalilzad immediately replied.

“Just as we feared,” responded a suit-and-tie. “They are readying their troops along the border, and President Nazarbaeva has already declared that they will invade unless Turkestan withdraws immediately.”

“Terrific…” muttered Khalilzad.
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Editor’s Note: This guest post is by Michael Manning, and is cross-posted at the Opposite End of China. What follows is part of a cross-blog survey that explores what Central Eurasia might look like fifteen years from now.

At the behest of neweurasia, I’m diving today into the unfamiliar waters of wild speculation. What will Xinjiang be like fifteen years from now, in the year 2021? Of course, no one really knows. If my predictions turn out to be correct, chalk it up to luck rather than extraordinary foresight. Still, I hope you’ll enjoy this exercise in imagination: a blog entry from December 20, 2021 sent by my future self to my present self via QQQ — the bloated successor to QQ — which evidently has a time-travel email feature. (more…)

Editor’s Note: This guest post is by Joshua Foust, and is cross-posted at the Registan. What follows is part of a cross-blog survey that explores what Central Eurasia might look like fifteen years from now.

As part of a collaboration with NewEurasia.net, I’ve been asked to write about what Afghanistan will be like in 15 years. Since this is clearly a difficult task — fifteen years ago the country had just thrown off the Soviets and no one outside of Kandahar had heard of the Taliban or Al-Qaeda — I’m naturally going to take some big short-cuts. The most obvious is avoiding the larger geopolitical picture; at their request I am writing a non-descriptive piece, so I’m pretending to write a letter from a normal Afghani citizen, living in the relatively calm Herat province in the west, to his cousin in Montreal (this is loosely based on the framework of the movie “Kandahar”). Other shortcuts will include not focusing on the tiny details of daily life — this isn’t a book, and I’m not Asne Seierstad, though her work’s influence will clearly shine through. As a last caveat, I’m not terribly skilled with fiction, so I’d appreciate everyone humoring me on style and flow.

(more…)

Welcome to the first of our roundups of news on security and defence in the Central Asian region.

We’ll start with a new speech from the leader of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which threatens the Presidents of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan with punishment ‘for the crimes they are committing’. The IMU has apparently regrouped since the fall of the Taliban, but its current capabilities remain unknown.

In a related report from the IWPR on Tajikistan, the potential threat posed by militant groups appears to be on the rise. The special forces unit mentioned in the article has recently taken part in Tajikistan’s first-ever counter-terrorism exercise with China.

Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are also cooperating on security issues. Rafiq Qori Kamoluddin, the Uzbek imam killed in southern Kyrgyzstan in August, was apparently targeted by a joint Uzbek-Kyrgyz operation. On the Kyrgzstan blog, Yulia has discussed the new hard line taken by President Bakiev, who recently vowed to ‘eliminate’ religious extremists.

Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are also seem to be drawing closer to Russia on defence issues. Uzbekistan has conducted anti-terrorist military exercises with Russia and signed the CSTO treaty, while Kyrgzstan has benefited from Russian arms deals and taken part in similar drills.

In Turkmenistan, army recruiters are calling up increasing numbers of people, including those unfit to serve, in order to provide free labour. Conscripts are now serving as nurses, construction workers, security guards, cotton harvesters, firemen and policemen.

Meanwhile, the Kazakh army has taken part in its first exercise with Chinese forces. The Roberts Report believes the ‘anti-terrorist’ drills are aimed at China’s Uygur minority. China has been building a rapid-reaction force in Xinjiang which could be used for for internal security or for securing energy resources in Central Asia.

However, Kazakhstan is keeping its options open, by simultaneously building defence relations with NATO, the EU and Russia, as well as China.

American views on the complex web of Central Asian defence relations, and in particular the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, are highlighted in this piece from EurasiaNet. Is the SCO “the most dangerous organization Americans have never heard of”, as one US expert believes? The State Department certainly doesn’t share that view.

Finally, to end on a positive note, all five Central Asian states have pledged that the region will remain a nuclear-free zone. The Kazakh Government is sufficiently confident in its disarmament credentials to condemn North Korea’s nuclear test.