Deutsche Welle’s coverage of Turkmen affairs continues as strong as ever. In a recent report, the radio station looks at the shortage of foodstuffs in the market:

“In spite of the change in Turkmenistan’s leadership, the problems that distinguished the regime of the late President Saparmurat Niyazov have remained. Moreover, problems persist in questions that President Kurbanguly Berdymukhammedov has cited as priorities and which the new government has passed a number of decrees and laws to address. The affected areas are the social sphere and the food and medicinal supplies to the population.
As Deutsche Welle correspondent Oraz Saryev reports, the prices of staple products have continued to rise. In the markets, the cost of meat has increased almost twofold. Although, spring has begun costs have gone up for cucumbers, tomatoes and onions. And bread too has become more expensive.
Publicly traded of bread is yet again suffering from a severe deficit, despite the fact that one of Berdymukhammedov’s earliest decrees was to place a state monopoly on the trading of flour and bread.
Private traders with connections have been buying up bread directly from the bakeries and selling them on at speculative prices, just as the government fails keep up with deliveries of the goods.
Difficulties have also arisen with medicine supplies, which Berdymukhammedov also promised to tackle. In state pharmaceutical outlets, prescription medicine is not being issued, and on the few occasion that they are obtainable, it is only in exchange for money and at inflated prices. What is more, much of the medicine has passed its expiry date. Even a simple check-up at the doctors costs a significant amount of money, which means that the less well-off living in the regions prefer not to seek medical attention at all.”

With this as the setting, a few appointments and presidential dictates may be worth keeping an eye out for.
Perhaps a minor note was that on March 5, the president appointed Atamyat Altybayev as head of the Turkmengallaonumleri bread association, with the obligatory warning that poor performance would result in his dismissal after six months.
However, this measure seems a detail as compared with the regular reprisals of the theme of agricultural reform. Most recently, the Khalk Maslahaty adopted a range of reforms, outlined in an IWPR report:

“On March 30, the Halk Maslahaty, or People’s Council – the supreme legislative body in Turkmenistan – is to approve a strategy document envisaging radical reforms in agricultural production and processing over the period to 2030. It will also pass two new laws, one on peasants’ (“dayhan”) associations, the other on peasant farms.

The strategic programme will propose reviewing land improvement arrangements to curb salination caused by poor irrigation, instituting forward-planning for the use of farmland so that irrigation waters are preserved, and transforming small specialised farms on leased land into bigger, diversified farming units.”

But, as IWPR points out, these measures may prove insufficient if they fail to address shortcomings such as lack of credit for agricultural workers and regeneration of barren land. The market for agricultural goods remains strictly regulated, as do the organisations responsible growing and trading them. Moreover, land rights still remain a key issue in the country’s disastrous agricultural sector:

“The way land is distributed in Turkmenistan also hampers production. Although the constitution allows private ownership of some kinds of property, land can only be held in lease from the state. If landholders fail to meet government production targets, their land can be be taken away from them and given to someone else.

When land is constantly transferred from one farmer to another, the quality of the soil deteriorates because it is never left fallow, experts points out.”

As it is, the government is only prepared to countenance technical adjustments, such as when Berdymukhammedov asked Sherip Tajev, the chairman of the Turkmenobahyzmat association in charge of agricultural services, to ensure that farm machinery is assigned to individual farms instead of having them constantly transferred from one holding to another. As Turkmenistan.ru also reports, Berdymukhammedov ordered the deputy Cabinet chairman Hydyr Saparliyev to create vocational schools to train agricultural specialists.

The Deutsche Welle report offers an anecdotal example of the kind of distortion that Turkmenistan’s top-down management of the agricultural sector can bring about, but a starker scale of concern is represented by the most recent World Bank figures (2003) on the importance of rural affairs for the country’s very existence:

“Rural development is critical as it accounts for a 26 percent of GDP, and is a source of livelihood for 54 percent of the population.”

And yet given that much of the difficulties that ordinary people report in the markets begin in the fields, it is striking that Berdymukhammedov continues, like his predecessor, to make a great show of opening industrial food and crop processing plants. On March 31, he inaugurated a flour-grinding and pasta factory in the Mary velyat that, as Turkmenistan.ru keenly notes, will “produce 16 types of macaroni, including famous Italian spaghetti”.

The highlight of last week’s Khalk Maslahty gathering, as reported by the international media, was the election of President Kurbanguly Berdymukhammedov as its chairman.
In a show of support reminiscent of the rule of the late President Saparmurat Niyazov, Berdymukhammedov’s installation to the position was reportedly endorsed by a unanimity of around 2,500 members of the council. This has been widely read as a continuation of Niyazov’s authoritarian political practices. A Ferghana.ru analysis prior to the event is broadly indicative of this general view:

“The alignment of forces in the upper echelons of power depends on who will head the Khalk Maslahaty in its current form. If the incumbent president becomes its chairman (and this very scenario would be logical from the viewpoint of the existing regime), one may surely say that Ashgabat is not going to destroy the system brought about under Niyazov’s rule.”

However, a proper understanding of this development requires a complete assessment of Berdymukhammedov’s position in the current ruling order and the actual significance of the institution of the Khalk Maslahaty.
Early examinations of the new president’s effective grip over the rule of the country had Berdymukhammedov cast in the role of a hostage to forces operating behind the scene. As quoted on this blog, RIA-Novosti commentator Andrei Grozin wrote in late December that:

“Sixty year-old Defense Minister Agageldy Mamedgeldyyev is the oldest from Niyazov’s entourage, and, hence most likely to head the Khalk Maslahaty.”

That prediction has turned out to be incontrovertibly incorrect and suggests that Berdymukhammedov, for now at least, does command some degree of genuine authority. In that respect, the Khalk Maslahaty’s collective decision, certainly imposed rather than autonomously undertaken, hints towards stability and continuity instead of deepening dictatorial tendencies. Taking matters at face value, the only decision that could have followed from the electorate’s resounding choice was the installation of Berdymukhammedov as chairman of the Khalk Maslahaty. Following the logic of Turkmen institutions, any other option would have rung not only as perverse but also disconcerting. The election of a military figurehead or a puppet candidate would have been more cause for concern than the course that has been taken.

Misreading these events is also subject to misconception of what the Khalk Maslahaty actually is. The body shares precious little with any Western notions of democracy and its undermining cannot consequently be interpreted as an inherently dictatorial development. While important decisions are adopted in this forum, they are not usually discussed or questioned. This may be just as well, as the constituents of the body can hardly be said to be representative of political procedures recognisable to modern democracies. Members of the Khalk Maslahaty are, in all likelihood, not qualified or willing to engage in the kind of debate and policy-forming that one would normally expect of representative organs.

The people’s council is little more than a pseudo-popular gathering that Niyazov’s regime cobbled together from remnants of the Soviet-style assemblies and half-baked co-opting of tribal affiliations. In that sense, Berdymuhammedov’s placement as its head serves to underscore the purely formal role it has to play in national decision-making.

Curiously enough, the actual role of the Khalk Maslahaty was the main item on the agenda for the council. In what seems like a compromise with the power ministry wing of the Turkmen government, a constitutional amendment was adopted decreeing that in the event of the chairman of being unable to fulfil his duties, the body could be convened by the Security Council.
Perhaps more significantly, a further amendment was made to the effect that the Khalk Maslahaty chairman, the parliament, the Cabinet, the Galkinish social movement and one-fourth of the people’s council are eligible to table proposals to the Khalk Maslahaty.

This post on Internet in Turkmenistan, caused a discussion on whether Internet is important at all in a country where there are no jobs and bribery is blossoming. One comment particularly caught our attention and I am posting it here:

Turkmen said,

on February 21st, 2007 at 10:37 pm

Non Fiction: We used to have soldiers in our home working for food. They were brought to our home to work by their commanders. Mayors would get bribe for giving us labors. Now, sergeants come to people’s houses and sell or exchange soldiers’ food for cigarets, socks, money. How many weak and Russians were killed in these Armies?

Less than a month ago my brother died there. He was 19, studied only 3-4 grades at school. Went to Russia earn money for living at the age of 13-14. Now, when he came back after 5 years away of his motherland without visa and crossed the border illigally he was put in jail for 10 days. Then he sent invitation to his pregnant bride in Uzbekistan. They waited for 3 months for this visa and they didn’t give it to her. “You are no one to him, you are not his wife to go to Turkmenistan” was said in the Embassy to her. But it was told in the invitation that he is inviting her to his country to get married. Now, after waiting for 3 months for her he died. He didn’t see her, they didn’t live together. The baby will be born without a father.

My friend was cought in Turkmenbashi because he was on vacation. The police men were stunned when they heard that he, turkmen was on vacation. They put him to jail because he is baptized turkmen in Russian Orthodox Church. In the jail there was a concrete floor where people were freezing. After a while a big man came and pulled them out of the cage in order to get them work in his home. My friend refused to go so he was taken by the mayor who had a long talk and …

There was time when people couldn’t get passports for the reason that the covering of the Turkmen passports were printed in Britain and Britain run out of printers! I waited my passport for 7 months and when I got tired of this bullshit I urged the passport giver to give it to me imediatly. He said that he will put me into jail if I stand for my rights.

Children coming to our houses asking for empty plastic bottles are common scene.
I was asked to live my secondary school because my mother promised a present to the principal of my school and didn’t give it to her.
Let that dead machines pick up cotton. 8th and 9th graders pick up cotton for September,October and November and breathe the dust.
Yes, that is it. If Turkmens have access to the internet then they will read this and continue my story.

A curious item appeared in the Russian media early last week regarding the murder in September of the first deputy chairman of the Russian Central Bank Andrei Kozlov.

After 35-year-old Russian citizen Alexei Frenkel was arrested in Moscow on Jan. 11 for ordering Kozlov’s murder, it was widely assumed that the case had been all but solved. A few observers have noted the peculiarity of such a relatively minor operator being behind such a gangland-type operation, but these objections have largely been overshadowed by Russia’s steamroller justice system.
Last week, however, a report appeared in Russian daily Vremya Novostei suggesting that the trail may lead further — to corrupt Turkmen bankers previously implicated in a scheme to embezzle $40 million from a Turkmen Central Bank fund.
As Ivestia has also reported:

Half of this money found its way to a Latvian bank, Lateko. As this newspaper has already reported, one of the current suspects in Kozlov’s murder, Boris Shafrai, had previously worked for this bank.

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In September 2002, it was discovered that a number of employees at the Turkmen Central Bank had gained access to the organisation’s international payments system and stole large sums of cash from the lender’s accounts in Deutsche Bank. The money was quickly shuffled from one bank to another — including Russky Depozitarny Bank (RDB) and Indeksbank.
At least one criminal proceeding followed from this — the head of RDB, Dmitry Leus, was sentenced to a four year sentence in 2004.
As Leus’s lawyer Anna Stavitskaya explained: “The investigation established that half of the $40 million had been placed on an account at at Lateko Bank. The rest of the money was placed in RDB. This money was later removed and placed in Indeksbank. The head of RDB was sentencedm but the heads of Indeksbank Aisoltan Niyazov and Savely Burshtein managed to avoid the probe. To this day, neither they nor the money have been found.
It cannot be excluded that it is this affair that led Shafrai to order the killing of Kozlov (Note: Shafrai was arrested for personally hiring the individuals charged with Kozlov’s murder).
Accoridng to his former lawyer, Valery Karyshev, Shafrai is now actively cooperating with the investigation, while Frenkel continues to maintain his innocence.
As Ivestia has also previously reported, Shafrai has long-standing relations with Lateko Bank. As the son of Kazakh businessman Nikolai Usatov, Dmitry, has claimed, in 2005 Shafrai transferred $2.5 million between his own companies, both of which were registered under that bank accounts.
In Anna Stavitskaya’s opinion, Moscow-based Indeksbank was a typical “pocket bank”. It was founded in 2002 and closed down shortly after this transfer was concluded.
It is curious that Indeksbank is best known as a large Ukrainian bank — it has branches in Dnepropetrovsk, where Shafrai was born, and in Lugansk, where Kozlov alleged killer hailed from. Can this coincidence be entirely casual. It is possible that the clone bank in Moscow was set up for this very operation.

As Finans magazine reported, Niyazov and Burshtein may soon be officially declared as wanted suspects in the murder the case, although no official announcement has yet been made. A third former member of Indeksbank’s board, Yevgeny Obzhirov, is also being sought in connection with the killing. Although no charges had been placed on him in relation to the Turkmen embezzlement allegations, Finans reports that he cannot be located.
As for the Deutsche Bank link, this may be related to allegations put forward by a Global Witness report, among other places, that the Turkmen government was using the lender as deposit foreign exchange fund. A former Turkmen Central Bank Chairman Khudaiberdy Orazov claimed that the cash, mostly funneled away from the country’s significant energy-related income, was being used as former President Saparmurat Niyazov’s own “personal spending money,” Spiegel reported.
If for no other reason, the Turkmen authorities would be as uncomfortable with the idea of insiders like Aisoltan Niyazov, Burshtein, and Obzhirov spilling the beans to Muscovite authorities, thus leading to embarrassing indiscretions in the Russian press, as they would be keen for these individuals to be put in their charge.

Further important ministerial appointments by President Kurbanguly Berdymuhammedov have trickled out of Turkmenistan, this time touching on some of the country’s most influential political assignments.
At the 11th session of the third legislature of the Turkmen Mejlis on Feb. 23, deputies approved the appointment of Yashgeldy Esenov as chairman of the Supreme Court, Muhammed Ogushkov as Prosecutor General, Akhmad Rakhmanov as Minister of the Interior, and Murad Karriyev as the Minister of Justice.
The Mejlis also unanimously confirmed the appointment of Turkmenistan’s first ever female speaker of parliament — Akdja Nurberdiyev. In the same session, deputies also voted to name Kasymkuly Babayev as the legislature’s deputy speaker.
On the same day, Berdymuhammedov held a meeting with the Security Council, where he named his Minister of Defence, Minister of National Security and Head of Customs — Agageldy Mammetgeldyev, Geldymuhammed Ashirmuhammedov, and Airam Alovov respecetively.
Needless to say these are reconfirmations, so as opposed to the several replacements that have taken place in the civilian ministries, these appointments suggest that Berdymuhammedov is opting to pursue his predecessors line with regard to these matters. Alternatively, the interia could be interpretedt as a sign that he is captive to these often competing sources of actual power in the country. The power ministries are all similarly dubious institutions in their regards to upholding human rights, to say the least, but they are far from allies. If one accepts the reading, made in some quarters, that Berdymuhammedov will take charge of the civilian sector while giving Chief of the Presidential Guard Akmurad Rejepov control of the country’s security issues, this Cabinet is easy to understand. The impetus for reform genuinely exists, but only in the civilian sector.
In other appointments, Juma Jumayev will head the Committee for Human Rights, Baimurat Babayev was named as head of the Science, Education and Culture Committee, Akhmet Chariyev will head the Economics and Social Affairs Committee, and Akmuhammet Shamuhammedov will take charge of the International Affairs and Interparliamentary Committee.
To date, quite extensive professional biographies of the lesser ministers have been published on the state newspaper (which can be downloaded here for Russian-speakers), but the power ministries have yet to have such information provided.

An Associated Press article appeared in the International Herald Tribune in mid-February suggesting that Turkey could hold the path to Turkmenistan developing a more open foreign policy.
In addition to citing the standard tropes about similar language and cultural heritage, the writer suggests that the unrivalled access enjoyed by Turkish media and delegation was indicative of Ankara’s potential to expand on its interests in the area.
A similar sense of anticipation about this trans-Turkic link-up was expressed about most of the Asian region in the years after Soviet collapse. The difference now is that the relationship has already been in place for some years and has not appeared purely in the wake of Saparmurat Niyazov’s death, as the AP article seems to suggest.
As even the writer admits, Ashgabat is home to around 20 Turkish schools and Turkey is possibly the most popular destination for Turkmen students seeking scholarship overseas. This is but one of the many ties that have been developed between the two partners since 1991.
This relationship is neither as new nor benevolent as the AP writer implies. As the state-run newspaper Neutralniy Turkmenistan reported Wednesday,
President Kurbanguly Berdymuhammedov met with prominent Turkish businessman, Ahmet Calik, this week. Calik, who runs the Calik Holding Company, was reputed to enjoy unparalleled access to Niyazov and was one of his main advisers in international dealings. Having the ear of a country’s president filled with the ego-fulfilling gibberish that was evidently fed to Niyazov did not and will not serve Turkmenistan well.
After meeting with Calik on Tuesday, Berdymuhammedov then held talks on Wednesday with the head of another Turkish company, Polimeks. Among other things, Polimeks CEO Erol Tabanj spoke about his high hopes for the timely completion of the new Ministry of Culture and Telecommunications building. Aside from the notorious French construction firm Bouygues, which has won contracts for some of the most overwrought government buildings in the country, most of the foreign construction tenders in Turkmenistan since independence have been given to Turkish firms.

That said, as Business New Europe observes in an e-mailed newsletter:

Turks have always been welcome in Turkmenistan. In the 1990s, the late Turkmen president Saparmurad Niyazov used to force cognacs on his visiting counterparts while he necked coloured water. If he wanted a shopping centre built, or another monument to his megalomania, he turned to Turkish construction companies to do the job.

In return, he only ever offered a little natural gas, Turkmenistan’s only real resource. Judging by the number of top Turkish officials who attended the February 14 inauguration of the new Turkmen president, Gurbanguly Berdimukhammedov, it’s an oversight Turkey hopes the new administration will rectify.

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Dependent on Russia for 60% of its gas supplies, Turkey sees Turkmenistan is a means of diversifying its own resources. But Turkmenistan also has a key role to play in Turkey’s broader strategy to turn itself into an energy corridor and the “fourth artery” for Russia-dependent Europe.

It is intriguing to consider that Turkey may become, as the United had hoped in the early 1990s, the West’s path into Central Asia. But if there is to be a new and more vigorous impetus in the relationship, it will come not from the construction moguls that have done little more with their access than flatter Niyazov.
Turkey and Turkmenistan are not set to renew their friendship, because it never ended in the first place. The potential now is for a partnership based on mutual respect and, one would hope, a shared vision of national development.

The flurry of edicts and appointments, and symbolic meetings and events in Turkmenistan since the election of the new president, Kurbanguly Berdymuhammedov, has been head-spinning. A quick summary of the last two or so weeks should help to put this in some perspective:

On Feb. 12, one day after the presidential elections, a Turkmentelecom official tells the media that the country plans to open its first Internet café, Associated Press reported. On Feb. 21, the first of these Internet café is officially inaugurated, with promises that a further fifteen such facilities would open in different places across the country in the near future. Although for the record it should be noted that an Internet café, called Matrix, did already exist in Ashgabat’s World Trade Centre.

On Feb. 13, the office of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov confirms that it will attend the president’s inauguration.
Interfax reports that the Russian delegation announces its intention to work on strengthening “the existing work on partnership with the new leadership, particularly in the fuel and energy sector.”
Other attendees at Berdymuhammedov’s inauguration on Feb. 14 included Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, and the leaders of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Iran.
In what Jamestown’s John C.K. Daly described as a diplomatic snub, the United States sent U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher.
Another key figure present was gas giant Gazprom’s chief executive Alexei Miller, whose attendance drew inevitable speculation about Russia’s early move to assure itself of future gas supplies.

On Feb. 15, Russia and Turkmenistan confirmed pre-existing agreements on gas deliveries. On the same day, Baku Today reports that former president of the Azeri State Oil Company, Sabit Baghirov, has noted that Turkmenistan joining the bid to construct a TransCaspian Pipeline will be the key agenda in the country’s future bilateral relations. Four days later, Ukraine’s now former Fuel and Energy Minister Yuri Boyko notes with satisfaction the consistency of the country’s leadership — an obvious reference to former President Saparmurat Niyazov infamously erratic brand of gas diplomacy.

Appointments have also numerous and not without some of the erratic qualities of Niyazov.
On Feb. 16, Berdymukhamedov appointed 48-year-old Hadyr Saparlyyev as Minister of Education, a position he had already held in 2004-2005, as Reuters reported. The appointment is indubitably linked to Berdymukhamedov’s ambition to be seen following up on electoral promises to remedy the country’s disastrous educational sector.
One early decision to receive widespread plaudits is was reinstatement of 10-year compulsory schooling.
On Feb. 20, Berdymukhamedov announced his intention to create an oversight commission for law enforcement agencies. As the Associated Press reported:

“Berdymukhamedov said the new commission will analyse complaints by citizens in order to improve police and intelligence agencies’ operations. Among the members will be the chairman of the Supreme Court, the prosecutor general and ministers of justice and interior along with politicians and trade union leaders.”

In addition to being a gesture edging towards greater democratic values, the institution gives the president an official mechanism with which to keep the armed forces in check. Given that all the members of the putative commission would appear set to be drawn from de facto appointees of the president’s office, it is more likely that this would serve the prevailing elite rather than the country’s people, who have frequently suffered at the hands of arbitrary and corrupt police and intelligence operatives.

In a staff change on Feb. 18, Berdymuhammedov appointed Yusup Ishangulyev to head the presidential administration. This was historically a dangerous job to have and particularly subject to Niyazov’s frequent cadre switches. In July 2005, Rejep Saparov was dismissed from the position and subsequently sentenced to 20 years in jail on corruption charges. The job has since been held by a handful of people.
Meanwhile, there are still no reports of the reappearance or otherwise of Niyazov’s deputy chief of staff Alexander Zhadan, who is alleged by many to have been the former leader’s bagman.

Perhaps most curiously, the head of the country’s main oil refinery, Tachberdi Tagiyev, was named as the new head of state gas monopoly Turkmengaz, with the rank of Cabinet minister, on Feb. 18, only to be relieved of this post on Feb. 23. He was subsequently promoted to deputy chairman of the Cabinet. The new chairman of Turkmengaz will be Yagshygeldy Kakayev, who has specialized in the oil and gas sector since 1982. Since 1996, Kakayev has headed the processing industry department of the Oil, Gas and Natural Resources Ministry.

The last two days have seen the most active season for official appointments — including Khodjamuhammed Muhammedov as Chairman of the stock exchange; Kurbandurdy Kakaliyev as Social Security Minister; Muratberdy Annalyev as head of the State Customs Service; Sapargeldy Djumayev as head of the state geological exploration agency Turkmengeologia; Kakamurad Mommadov as director of the State Statistics and Information Service; Enebay Atabayeva as the Minister of Culture and Telecommunicatoins. Deryageldy Orazov as the head of the state committee for tourism and sport; Yusup Davudov as the Minister for Energy and Industry; Djeren Taimov as the head of the Turkmen State Information Service and the editor of Neutralniy Turkmenistan; Orazmurad Esenov as the governor of the Ashgabat region; Resulberdy Khodjakurbnov as the Minster for Communications; Ashirgeldy Zamanov as Transportation Minister; Orazberdy Khudayberdiyev as Minster for Railways; Yailym Berdyev as chairman of the State Foreigner Registration Service.

Lesser appointments included Dovlet Hodjaev as chief of the Federal Tax Service; Kurbangeldy Klychdurdyev as the Rector of the Turkmen State Energy Institute; Kurbanguly Aitkulyev as the chairman of the Turkmen Chemical company; Baymurat Kulov as the head of the Turkmen Shipping Company.
He switched Murat Orazov from being the general director of state Turkmen television to being in charge of state film and television production company. Shadury Alovov was named as deputy Minister of Culture and Telecommunications and also appointed new head of the state television corporation.

The message is that for all the vaunted continuity, Berdymuhammedov realises that a shake-up is his only means of progress and survival. Notably, the changes that have been made so far have more frequently touched upon the industrial, economic and social side of the country’s affairs. To say that political and military reform will be not be prioritised in the near term is the safest of guesses. The question remains, however, whether such reforms as are adopted will be profound, genuine and effective.

Recent elections in Turkmenistan, where Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov won an overwhelming victory, came as no surprise for those who followed the events in the country after the sudden death of Saparmurat Niyazov. The US State Department called the elections a “modest step forward”. More steps were to come: compulsory education was extended from nine to ten years at schools, from four to five at Universities, and the ban on access to the Internet was reversed. SNGnews.ru cited local media saying that opera is shown on Turkmen television, and specialists of non-Turkmen ethnic origin at different government bodies, sacked by Niyazov, are back to their offices. The Ministry of education re-introduced sports classes at schools and is now preparing programmes for the study of foreign languages.

I am particularly curious about the development of the Internet in the country. Turkmenistan was one of the few countries in the world where people could not get connected at home, nor were there Internet cafes – only few people from the government and international organisations had access. Those who were connected only saw a censored web, and a list of websites was blocked by Turkmentelecom. It could possibly change – public Internet cafes were opened in Ashgabat, which, according to the reports, provide uncensored access to the Internet. There is still a lot to be done and Turkmentelecom still stays the monopolist provider controlled by National Security Committee. Also, it is expensive – not everyone can afford paying four dollars per hour in an Ashgabat Internet cafe. I want to believe though that we will soon have contributors to this blog from within Turkmenistan, who will catch up with neighbouring Central Asian countries in blogging developments.

Colin Guard is Regional Programme Manager for Eurasia of the Internet Access and Training Program (IATP) of the International Research and Exchanges Board (IREX). Mr. Guard was in Tashkent from 2003 to 2005, managing the network of Internet access and training centres in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. IREX helped establish 5 Internet access centres in Turkmenistan (hosted by local partner organizations, which contribute rent-free space, utilities and security): two in Ashgabat, and one in Balkanabat, Dashoguz, Mary, and Turkmenabat.

Mr. Guard is hopeful, though he is not sure what to expect from the signs of changes in the country: “We don’t know what to expect, but we know what we hope: we hope that the President will fulfil his campaign promise by allowing free and unfettered competition among Internet service providers, and letting international organizations set up Internet centres without any restrictions, as is the standard practice in the advanced countries of Europe, North America and Asia. Turkmenistan is behind its neighbours in Internet penetration and has a lot of catching up to do. The Turkmen people are smart and educated and stand ready to make a major contribution to global dialogue, if they are given access to the means to do so.”

IREX Internet centres are the only free sources of Internet access for the general public in Ashgabat, and outside of it – the only sources of Internet access for the general public. According to Mr. Guard, it is not censorship, but the slow speed of the Internet connection that is the biggest problem in Turkmenistan. “Opening up the telecoms market in Turkmenistan to free competition among Internet service providers would rectify this problem”, says Mr. Guard.

As for the prospects for blogging in the next couple of years, Mr. Guard said: “Because development of blogs is a component of the Internet Access and Training Program, we KNOW that blogging will spread over the next year! More generally, blogging can flourish only after citizens are convinced that their right to free speech will be honoured and protected. Citizens of Turkmenistan are waiting to see whether the conditions will change”.

Interim President Kurbanguly Berdymuhammedov made his boldest statement to date about the possibility of moving Turkmenistan in a slightly more pluralistic, Russian news agency RIA-Novosti reported late Wednesday.

“Our governments must take all measures to ensure the development of democracy, and on that basis [political parties can develop”

Talking at a meeting with voter in the Ahal velyat, he emphasized that the process should take place artificially. But like the previous occasions in which he spoke about the importance of political reform, he was mindful to recall the “secular and democratic” legacy of former President Saparmurat Niyazov.

“And we absolutely must follow this course.”

Berdymuhammedov also noted that in concordance with democratic norms all Turkmen people should have freedom of speech and professional choice.
This rhetoric falls in line with a well-publicized series of pronouncements that has relatively successfully trodden the fine line between momentarily appeasing Western policymakers and offering a glimpse of an alternative future to a potentially restive population, while indisputably conveying the notion of cultural, if not strictly political, continuity with Niyazov’s leadership.
As yet, however, not even the slightest nominal gesture has been made to demonstrate genuine conviction towards wishing to engage with the exiled opposition, which has consequently cast doubt on the new order readiness to shed its legacy. The reasons for this reluctance may, however, less simplistic than outside observers account for.
Notably, during a recent seminar in Moscow, the son jailed Niyazov opponent Boris Shikhmuradov and opposition Republican Party representative Bayram Shikhmuradov suggested that his father, who has not been seen or heard of since 2003, would easily win the presidential election.
There is absolutely no reason to give such an assertion the slightest bit of credit in view of the fact that most of the Turkmen population would only probably recognize Boris Shikhmuradov as either Niyazov’s formerly devoted servant or, subsequently, as his demonised attempted assassin.
Where the influence of the most high-profile Turkmen opposition figures might be felt is within some sections of the elite itself. Whatever the intentions of the interim government, democratic or otherwise, they realize that the presence of opposition figures in the country could not but have a destabilizing effect.
The tentative regional diplomacy of the United States has tacitly proceeded in line with these calculations and cleared taken the position that the election on Feb. 11 is only a precursor of more challenging times if reform is truly in store for Turkmenistan.

An interesting development has arisen in the Turkmen Foreign Minister’s announcement that international observers will be allowed to oversee upcoming Feb. 11 elections, as The Associated Press reports:

Minister Rashid Meredov said Turkmenistan will allow international observers to monitor next month’s presidential elections, state television reported Sunday.
The move will make the Feb. 11 vote to replace long-ruling autocratic President Saparmurat Niyazov — who died last month — the Central Asian nation’s first ever election monitored by outside observers.
Meredov told a Cabinet meeting Saturday that agreements were reached to invite election observers from Russia, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and some other unspecified organizations, state television said. It gave no further details.
Developments in this ex-Soviet republic after Niyazov’s death have been closely watched by both Russia and the West because of its huge natural gas reserves and its strategic location next to Iran and Afghanistan.
Russia depends on Turkmenistan’s natural gas supplies to meet its own energy delivery commitments to Europe.
Deputy Prime Minister Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov, who became acting president after Niyazov’s death, is one of six presidential candidates and is expected to win.
All candidates were chosen by Turkmenistan’s highest legislative body and they pledged to continue the policies of Niyazov, the self-proclaimed Turkmenbashi or “Father of All Turkmen” who ruled the desert nation of five million for 21 years.
Turkmenistan’s election chief Murad Karryyev said earlier that the election would be monitored only by domestic observers.
The OSCE, a trans-Atlantic democracy and security body that monitors elections, has said it aims to send a small team of experts to follow the election, but will not mount a full observation mission because of a lack of time to prepare.
It said in a recent report that this will be Turkmenistan’s first presidential election with more than one candidate, which it said was a development that “merits support” but was “no guarantee for a competitive election.”

Further commentary to follow.