Prior to the celebrations of Turkmenistan’s 14th year of independence the 16th session of the Khalk Maslahaty was convened (please see ‘Nothing is forever, nobody is forever post 25/10/05). During the session a new law was passed which signalled some changes to the political organisation of the country. Most significantly, the president has changed the law so local officials will now be elected by the population rather than be appointed by himself.

There will be new 40-member ‘People’s Councils’ in every etrap (district) in Turkmenistan. The entire population of the etrap will elect the members to these Councils. The 40 members will then be charged with electing the mayor of the etrap. According to the law, arcins [heads of village councils] are directly subordinate to the mayor’s office of a district. The mayor’s office will be in charge of the implementation of resolutions of a district People’s Council and keep a record of its work. There will also be larger ‘Regional People’s Councils’ that will oversee the work of the Mayor’s office and etrap Council. It will be made up of 80 deputies and the entire population of a region, too, will elect them, from each town and village.

Such commitment to elections at the local level is quite a step. However, there is no certainty to how competitive they will be, or what it really means for the future of political development in the country. The President’s thinking on this is fairly straightforward and honest:

Please, go ahead and elect; elect the best and skilled ones, but the next day don’t come and complain to me that I appointed that person. In that case, I will say that it was your choice. You have a right to dismiss that person. These 80 people can gather and dismiss that person [presumably governor of a region] if he does not do his job well. There should be at least 2-3 candidates when electing officials and all three of them won’t be the same or possess the same skills.

In such a reformist and generous mood the president also announced changes to the way the parliament works. The Mejlis (parliament) has been considered for sometime, by western scholars, to be nothing more than a rubber stamp legislature beckoning to the call of the president. Its powers were further weakened some years ago when the Khalk Maslahaty took over some of its functions. However, according to the new law, passed by the Khalk Maslahaty, the national parliament is to have its powers raised and its number of deputies increased. The parliament’s duties have now been extended, according to the president:

Their duties will include controlling the work of regional People’s Councils, district People’s Councils, village councils as well as people’s representatives. They [parliament members] can also control the work of economic sectors by visiting them because we issue laws ourselves and we issue decrees ourselves too. We also determine the development of the economic sectors and society. If officials commit wrongdoings, then they will be accountable both before the parliament and the Cabinet of Ministers. Cabinet of Ministers and parliament should carry out a joint investigation and then inform the President of its results. It is their responsibility to correct the shortcomings and they should inform only after correcting. They should not switch to bribery by not correcting the shortcomings and not recommending dismissing that person.

Moreover, the number of deputies will be increased from 50-65.

Again, how significant these changes are will just have to be seen. But a firm commitment to the reorganisation of local government, the holding of elections (whether to western democratic standards or not) and a strengthening of the parliament’s powers, does suggest a shift in executive policy from the heightened centralisation of recent years. Only time will tell how this pans out in reality.

The elections will be held as follow:

Village councils and heads of village council’s mid-2006
District People’s Councils in December 2006
Regional People’s Councils in December 2007
Parliamentary elections in December 2008
Presidential Election December 2009???

Gundogar carries a comprehensive transcript of some of the discussions at this session of the Khalk Maslahaty, here.

And one last final thing, a new passport has been introduced for Turkmen citizens. The new passports will include biometric data – a digital photo and fingerprints – in line with international standards. Further details here.

The Ukrainians have gone visiting, so it was only natural the Russians would follow suit. Niyazov’s latest visitors, also in town to mark the Independence celebrations, were the Russian presidential energy envoy Igor Yusufov and Gazprom deputy CEO Alexander Ryazanov. In what was a clear dig at the Ukrainian drama, Ryazanov remarked that cooperation between the countries was “developing normally, and there are no disputes or unresolved issues.”
The one reference to the background of problems was a reassurance that there have been no technical hindrances to the conveyance of gas to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine the leader of the Republican Party Yuriy Boiko has spoken about his optimism about the progress of negotiations. In particular, he indicated his Prime Minister’s preparedness to go to the Turkmen independence celebrations as a sign of their countries’ mutual respect.

“I am certain that relations between us and Turkmenistan will be fine if we settle up debts for the gas delivered in the first half of 2005. We have been saying this for a long time, ever since problems first began to arise,” said Boiko

And if money isn’t sufficient, Niyazov’s pride may be placated by Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov’s suggestion to his Culture Minister that he organise a day devoted to Turkmen culture. During the government meeting he went on to express his satisfaction with the educational standards of the Ukrainian diaspora in Turkmenistan:

“There’s a Ukrainian school operating there and, you know, you should see what excellent Ukrainian they speak. Many would do well to study there.”

Speaking to the Energy Minister, Yekhanurov suggested information should be posted on his ministry’s web site detailing outstanding debt to the Turkmen government. The data would be updated on a weekly basis, in order for the general public to keep tabs on the rate and scale of the reimbursements. In this way, the Turkmens will be obliged to raise objections in due time, rather than at the opportune moments they have relied on to date.
And finally, doubt has been cast on earlier claims that Naftohaz Ukrayiny CEO Oleksiy Ivchenko had been refused a visa to Turkmenistan. Head of the Ukrainian Presidential Secretariat Oleg Ribachuk described the claim as cheap sensationalism. He scorned the suggestion that such manoeuvre would be in Turkmen style, and that it was just a rumour designed for PR. Indeed, it seems that such a possibility would have been technically impossible as Ivchneko was already in receipt of a diplomatic visa.
Everything points therefore to a Ukrainian scramble to bury any grievances that the last few months of disagreement have exposed.

Earlier this month, Naftohaz Ukrayiny CEO Oleksiy Ivchenko visited Ashgabat to negotiate the future of gas supplies from Turkmenistan to Ukraine. In a now-notorious televised encounter President Niyazov harangued Ivchenko over Ukraine’s alleged failure to meet the conditions of the original agreement, having failed to supply around $480 million worth of equipment.
Initially, Ukrainian Fuel and Energy Minister Ivan Plachkov admitted to the shortcoming, only for that to be later refuted by Ivchenko. The story in full is here.
Ivchenko’s remarks were further worsened by his allegation that his reply to Niyazov’s rant had been edited out of the final footage. In an article (in Russian) published yesterday in Ukrainian daily financial newspaper Ekonomika, it is also related that Ivchenko said that he had in fact spoken for a full 25 minutes, while his aides waited just outside the door in the lobby, listening in on the proceedings. Among other things, Ivchenko charged Niyazov’s entourage with misleading him about the exact nature of financial transactions relating to the gas deal. This is where the plot begins to get thicker. Again, Eurasianet gives a concise picture of all the twists and turns:

One important factor, which was not mentioned in the media reports of the Ukrainian-Turkmen meeting in October, was the future role of RosUkrEnergo, the controversial Swiss-based company contracted by both Gazprom and Naftohaz to act as the middleman for transporting Turkmen gas to Ukraine. In June, the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) began a criminal investigation into RosUkrEnergo. This investigation was stopped, according to Oleksander Turchinov, then head of the SBU, on Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko’s orders.

One of the purported reasons the investigation ended was that there were grave suspicions by the SBU that former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, Niyazov, and Russian President Vladimir Putin were all involved in substantial kickback schemes through RosUkrEnergo. Had these schemes been exposed, Ukraine stood to lose gas deliveries from both Russia and Turkmenistan. The other reason provided by Turchinov as to why the investigation was stopped was that some of Yushchenko’s closest advisors were themselves now linked to RosUkrEnergo.

As the investigation gathered steam, Niyazov ordered that the heads of Turkmenistan’s energy companies be arrested. They were all reportedly sentenced to long prison terms.

And then of course there was the sacking in May of Turkmen deputy Prime Minister for oil and gas Yolly Kurbanmuradov. This raises the distinct possibility that the recently publicised purges among the Turkmen political elite may be all about money, and who has or has not been stealing it.
The epilogue to the story, for now, is that Ivchenko has been denied a Turkmen visa, which means that he will be unable to conduct any further dialogue with Turkmenbashi in person. Niyazov is evidently not used to having anybody talk back to him, and if he has anything to do with it, it won’t be happening again.

And so the day has finally arrived. As this post went to press, the plans were for a military parade in Ashgabat’s main square (Independence Square, fittingly), followed by some kind of theatrical performance and a festive demonstration, featuring delegations from all five regions of the country. The parade is to be headed by Turkmenbashi in person.
Further to the festivities a special range of coins was issued to mark the occasion, though they are unlikely to appear at the bazaars as the country is pretty much a bank note economy.
As mentioned in the previous posts, Zhirinovsky is heading a delegation of Duma deputies, and he is being joined by the Ukrainian Prime Minister.
To be exact, it should be noted that today marks the fifteenth anniversary of the first ever presidential election to take place in Turkmenistan. Niyazov received 93% of the vote. The constitution meanwhile was adopted on 21 June 1992, which was followed by another election in which he garnered 99.5%, being the only candidate on the list.
On 1 October the Turkmen Majlis took the decision to endow Niyazov with his celebrated “Father of all Turkmens” title, or Turkmenbashi. During a government meeting in April this year, Niyazov expressed his desire to see a series of elections in the country, beginning with elections for district leaders in 2006, all the way to a new Presidential election. At the time Niyazov said:

“The people are ready to take a new step in the direction of current trends, which have taken hold in the world as models of a just and balanced world order and correspond to the interests, mentality and traditions of the Turkmen people”

And on that note, Happy Independence!

It must be nice when a foreign politician deigns to visit your much-maligned country to tell how well it is doing, how well its people are living, and what a good job is being done all round. Perhaps less so when that politician happens to be the professional troublemaker and extreme right-winger Vladimir Zhirinovsky, leader of the radical Russian Liberal Democratic Party (a fuller comment from him in Russian here). The only thing that has saved Zhirinovsky from being ignored all together back in his own country is the fact that he has acquired something of a clown status, and thus ensures high ratings for all of the many television programs he is invited to go on.
Unlike the event of Turkmenbashi’s mythical meeting with Putin and Bush, photos memorialising their encounter will not have to be forged.

And so the saga of the Turkmen-Ukraine gas deal continues to plod on. This time round Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov is visiting Ashgabat in a bid to iron out the latest hitch. For those who haven’t been paying attention, Ukraine had signed an agreement with Turkmenistan to purchase 50-60 billion cubic metres of natural gas at the rate of $58 per 1,000 cubic metres, half being paid in foreign currency and half in equipment and commodities. The priced had been upped from an earlier $44, but the Ukrainians relented in January this year as they faced the prospect of a cold winter without fuel. Since then Ukraine has fallen short of their payments in commodities to the tune of $480 million, and Niyazov isn’t happy.
In light of the very recent reprivatisation of their flagship steel plant Kryvorizhstal for $4.8 billion, there is every reason to believe that Ukraine will be feeling a bit flush. Does this mean that the capricious Turkmens will get their way yet again? Given Yushchenko’s current problems, there is every reason to believe they will.
In the broader perspective, this marks another victory for Turkmenistan’s crude energy diplomacy, which consists primarily of threatening to switch the tap off every few months. The bluff failed some months ago with Russia, which is a decidedly tougher and better-resourced opponent, as Mosnews reported some months back:

Russia and Turkmenistan reached an agreement to resume deliveries of Turkmen natural gas to Russia’s Gazprom from May 1. Gazprom was able to convince its Turkmen counterparts to sell the gas for $44 per 1,000 cubic meters instead of the $58 initially demanded. In return Turkmenistan cut its supplies from seven to four billion cubic meters.

Naturally, Russia is a pretty vital piece of the jigsaw, so Kiev may have been annoyed, if unsurprised, when Niyazov proposed three-way talks during his talks with Yekhanurov. A statement from Yekhanurov after a meeting with Turkmenbashi is a tantalising suggestion of the behind-the-scenes strategy games that are currently being played between Kiev, Moscow and Ashgabat:

“I think this question too should be taken into consideration. We’ll see. … [On an agreement for a 25-year delivery deal] It is indeed fundamental that we discuss matter in a tri-lateral format. … It is difficult to speak today about a 25-year contract, insofar as such long-term matter need to be assessed in the context of a process of dialogue with Russia.”

Keen watchers of Central Asian developments will remember the recent visit to Turkmenistan by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and it would not be too extravagant a supposition to conclude that the tri-lateral idea was raised at that time. Bargaining over Turkmen gas has had Ukraine and Russia on a collision course for quite a while, especially as there is no shortage of industry specialists who believe that Turkmenistan does not even have sufficient gas reserves to supply both these customers.
As the pieces stand now, Russia looks to be sinking its claws back into Ukraine, whose political future depends on gas it can barely afford, while Turkmenistan retains its neutrality policy unsullied. Again it should be recalled that while Ukraine uses most of the imports for domestic consumption, Russia merely uses it as a geopolitical pawn that enables it to sell gas to Europe at enormous profit. Ukraine’s despair and diplomatic proximity to an EU that is energy-hungry and prepared to spread further east would seem to make it a better bet, but it would seem safer to believe that Ashgabat is more reliant on Russia’s discretion about its eccentric political order.
As always, though it is tempting to glaze over yet more dull gas stories in Turkmenistan, there is ample reason to pay attention, especially when the ultimate outcome has very real implications for the West.
A final factor to consider is that Turkmenbashi may be feeling particularly benevolent as he basks in the pleasantries of Independence Day celebrations on 27 October. Already he has pledged to release 8,000 prisoners as part of the goings on (not including the political prisoners one assumes), so who knows whether he might be in a magnanimous frame of mind.

Yesterday saw the opening of the 16th session of the Khalk Maslahaty (People’s Council), the highest representative and legislative body of Turkmenistan. However, it was not all plain sailing. During one debate all members of the Council, bar one, rejected a proposal that had been put forward by the President. Alas, if you were expecting a surprise show of steel from the members of the Council, think again. The president was proposing to hold new presidential elections in 2009, however the Council, realising that this was not consistent with their decision to appoint Turkmenbashi president for life in 1999, voted against their own presidents proposal. President Niyazov had philosophically requested that the elections be held once he turned 70. Understanding his own mortality he stated, “nothing is forever, nobody is forever”, before going on to claim that in the next 4-5 years Turkmenistan needs to “grow a worthy successor”. According to Kommersant, the Council members interrupted the president’s speech chanting, “People! Motherland! Great Turkmenbashi!” After the vote the president thanked the members for their kind words but stressed that he will be bringing the motion to hold presidential elections back again at sometime in the future. The Council rejected a similar proposal last year. Finding a suitable successor and managing that person’s transition into the presidency seems to have become a priority for the president of late. This summer’s recent spate of dismissals has been seen by some as a clearing of the decks to make sure that those in the regime are loyal to the president and have limited ambitions. It is hoped a successor can be picked from new recruits. It seems, however, the president will have to wait a little longer to get his wish of new elections in 2009 and his chance to grow a worthy successor.

In conjunction with the celebration of the 14th anniversary since independence the Government has held inauguration ceremonies for two new facilities in Ashgabat. Two new white marble houses have been built at either end of the city. One is a four-storey building and the other has 12 stories. The buildings are exclusively landscaped, have car parking spaces and feature childrens playgrounds. Keys to the new flats were presented to officers of the National Security and Justice Ministries as well as High Court of Turkmenistan. Officers of these bodies enjoy a reduced discount rate reaching 70% when they buy flats. According to Turkmenistan.ru, house-warming parties will continue in the Turkmen capital in the coming days. Some 500 families will become lucky owners of new flats.

Sergey Lavrov, foreign minister of Russia, spent a busy day yesterday in Ashgabat. In addition to a long meeting with President Niyazov, he visited a number of places. According to News Central Asia, the minister and President Niyazov were able to achieve a fresh new level of understanding with regards to bilateral relations between Moscow and Ashgabat and were able to put past problems behind them. While discussing new models for transporting Turkmenistan’s natural resources to Europe, Turkmenistan also asked Russia to pay more for its gas. Also, after the meeting it became clear that both sides were inclined to treat the Caspian as a special sea and not a lake. This would leave Iran as the only Caspian state that still insists on a condominium approach. Russia also proposed that that the Caspian states set up a joint task force to prevent movement of weapons of mass destruction and terrorists across the Caspian Sea. How such regional cooperation could work in practice will remain to be seen as previous attempts have not borne considerable fruit. The Russian minister also suggested the United Nations may approve the Turkmen proposal of establishing a centre for preventive diplomacy in Ashgabat.

Mahribanlarym, the new book written by president Niyazov, was released to the public last week. Its title translates as ‘dear people’. According to a press release posted at turkmenistan.ru, the main idea of the book is about “the succession of generations and never-ending connection of times “. It features a collection of poetry and prose. This is apparently the president’s fifth book and I am sure it will be as successful as his last, the two volume Ruhnama. The Ruhnama, since its publication, has been introduced into the curricula of schools and universities. Full access to the article can be found here.

According to RIA Novosti Turkmenistan are demanding that Ukraine pay its natural gas debt by the end of the year. The demand came during a meeting between the Ukrainian Fuel and Energy Minister, the Board Chairman of the Ukrainian national oil and gas company and President Niyazov. The Ukraine government had agreed to pay $484 million worth of goods, but so far it has paid only $8.7 million. Although this could all be considered just posturing and negotiation through the media. The full article is here. Thanks to Oliver for this…