What follows is one part of a cross-blog initiative that commemorates the 1991 Moscow coup and evaluates the years in between.

The Day of the Coup - Worries, no Hopes

On August 19, 1991, the families in different parts of Kazakhstan were glued to their TVs, knowing that something worrying was going on in Moscow but not knowing what to expect next. The TV only showed Swan Lake ballet interrupted by messages from the State Emergency Committee (GKChP). The brick house near TYUZ, the “Theatre of Young Spectator”, inhabited by the employees of the theatre and Kazakhfilm budget film studio, was buzzing with rumors. The doors were kept open. A wife of a prominent Kazakh writer came to see her neighbors, worried about her husband who gave in his party membership shortly before the coup.

“My relatives described it as “mess”, says 27-year Adil, a political scientist from Almaty, “We all watched the television, where they showed the ballet and the statement of the State Emergency Committee all over. That is how we found out about the coup”.

Yekaterina Chzhen, 24, Research Associate at the Centre for Research in Social Policy, Loughborough University, UK, was 9 and in Karaganda at the time of the coup. “I remember the adults being all excited and concerned about what was happening…”.

Maya Atanayeva, 26, found out about the events in Moscow only the following days. “We were worried for the future, did not expect any concrete outcomes. Later we found out about creation of CIS, without knowing the advantages or disadvantages of this union”.

There were people who felt strongly against Russification - the declining use of Kazakh language and loss of Kazakh customs, but most did not think that Kazakhstan would become independent. Indeed, in December of 1986, students came out to the square to protest the appointment of Gennady Kolbin, an ethnic Russian, as a General Secretary of Kazakh SSR. Kolbin had not worked in Kazakh SSR before and was appointed by Mikhail Gorbachev, allegedly in an attempt to combat corruption in the Communist Party of Kazakh SSR. Ten protesters were killed and hundreds injured. These events set the country in turmoil but were dismissed as nationalistic protests of drunken students.

“Nazarbayev’s book, “Bez Pravyh I Levyh” (No right or wrong), written at the start of independence and at the peak of his popularity and rise of Kazakh nationalism, mentioned that he was leading the column of protests”, shares Adil, “But there are too many archives, including his own interview, where he personally says that the chauvinist radicals deserved a set-down.”

The 1991 event reminded Kazakhs of the year 1986; people did not seem to be optimistic. “There were more worries than hopes”, says Maya, “My friends and relatives were worried for their savings. Russian-speaking friends were afraid that the travel between Russia and Kazakhstan would be limited and it would be difficult to visit relatives from outside of Kazakhstan. There wasn’t much hope for “svetloe budushee”, the bright future.

Changes in the 1990s

Starting from 1989, the Kazakhstan Government started making efforts to revive the Kazakh language and culture by developing programs on introduction on Kazakh into main areas of public life. The importance of learning Kazakh was stressed by the Government, and people were more conscious about their national identities. Parents gave to Kazakh schools, but those were mostly weak and lacked the educational materials and teachers. Around 2 million ethnic Russians, Germans and Jews left Kazakhstan since 1989. In an effort to balance the declining population on vast territory of Kazakhstan, ethnic Kazakhs from neighboring countries were called to return to their historical homeland. Thus, the demography of Kazakhstan changed in these 15 years and is now mostly representative of ethnic Kazakhs.

The ethnic minorities in Kazakhstan, such as Uighurs, Germans, Russians, Koreans and others, are able to learn their own language and maintain their customs, though political representation of ethnic minorities is not discussed on a state level. It is prohibited by the Constitution to have a party on ethnic or religious line. The discussion of ethnic minorities is limited to the talks about ethnic stability and friendship of peoples, the embodiment of which is the Assembly of Peoples of Kazakhstan, presented by the Assembly officials as a proof that the President was able to maintain stability in this multiethnic country, though perceived by the population as an image supporting institution. The President’s decision to move the capital from Almaty to Astana is thought to represent an attempt to exert control on the Russian-dominated North, where in 1999, ethnic Russians made a separatist attempt.

“I thought that just another change was going to come. In 1980s, things were changing fast - General Secretaries died, were replaced by others, and died again. When Gorbachev came, there were even more sign-bearing events The putsch was another change, though unpleasant one. I liked popular Gorvachev, while putschists were unknown and not nice”, says Adil.

The changes did come indeed. The Soviet Union collapsed soon after the putsch with Kazakhstan becoming independent in December 1991, the last among Soviet Union republics. The economic situation was not stable, the inflation rate was insane and the political future unclear. The Baikonur Kosmodrom built by the Soviet Union, which sent Sputnik, Gagarin and Tereshkova to the space, now belonged to Kazakhstan. The vast oil reserves in the Caspian Sea also became Kazakhstan’s fortune. The Soviet Semipalatinsk nuclear test-site, where 456 explosions were conducted from 1949 to 1989 was now closed.

“The collapse of the Soviet Union was not bliss for me or my friends or relatives. It was a big tragedy, coupled by a non-controlled process and ineffectiveness of the republic’s leadership. There were hopes that everything will get back to normal and CIS will be a continuation of the USSR. Then came the gloomy years of survival, abasement of human dignity, loss of savings, total deficit and breaks in supply of electricity, gas and heating. What hopes could we talk about? The hopes came later, and they were connected not with the collapse of the Soviet Union, but with life in a democracy. They still remain hopes.”

Difficult economic situation, financial pyramids and inflation came together with possibilities for small private business and for import from foreign markets, specifically, Chinese.

“In 1992-1993 everybody was suddenly doing business,” recalls Yekaterina, “around 1993 I can remember a lot of people aspired to live better, but nobody produced anything. There was a lot of buying and selling going on. That’s when all those Chinese products flooded the market and everyone started having things which were not available before. Factories and institutions generally not paid people wages/salaries so that’s another reason a lot of folks just tried to start their own ‘business’, overall I believe people were having high hopes for the future because the dire economic situation of the late eighties and early nineties was over”

The Rise of Nazarbayev and Political Developments

It was in the 1980s that Nursultan Nazarbayev, the current President, appeared on a political scene. He first was the Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Kazakh SSR from 1984 to 1989 and the first secretary of the Kazakh Communist Party from 1989 to 1991. He was elected as a President of Kazakhstan in late 1991, and an April 1995 referendum extended his term until 2000. He was re-elected in January 1999 and again in December 2005. His elections have never met the OSCE standards.

After 1991, Western donors started pouring money into development of NGOs in Central Asia, encouraging the creation of civil society, the third sector that would be able to serve as a check to the Government. Though there were quite popular civil initiatives in the past, such as Nevada-Semey movement led by Olzhas Suleimenov, a prominent Kazakh writer that advocated for the closure of nuclear test site, many NGOs turned out to be forum-shopping for grant money.

First proclaiming democracy, Nazarbayev showed that he did not want to have strong checks on his power when, in 1995, he dissolved the Parliament and adopted several laws that had a force of constitutional laws. He turned a Constitutional Court into a Constitutional Council, thus demoting its power of constitutional review. As other leaders in the region, Nazarbayev changed the focus of the country’s development, did not speak of immediate democracy any more, but of gradual shift to it, from economic development to political. Though the 91% of vote that he got in 2005 Presidential elections seem unbelievably high, he does enjoy popular support in a country, which economic development due to its vast energy resources is visible.

“… people are not very politically active, do not discuss politics and don’t do anything”, observes Katya from her trips home, “as for the economy, of course the living standards increased for most of the population compared to the “perestroika” times and before. Also, for Kazakhstan being an oil-rich country it is hard to have a very gloomy outlook. As for myself, I am disappointed with the political life, lack of free speech, freedom of assembly, etc. All the standard ‘Western’ freedoms are not guaranteed in Kazakhstan in practice.”

Most young people are optimistic, despite limited political freedoms. There are jobs in Kazakh developing oil and gas sector, jobs in not-for-profit organizations created by donors and international organizations like USAID and UN, business and marketing. “…in the continental Europe everyone craves job security, and mobility is low, whereas in Kazakhstan all my friends my age are working and are changing jobs when they are not satisfied with conditions”, continues Katya. “My parents are not happy with the regime”, says Asset, a 28-year old IT-manager in an international company in Almaty, “they say there are murderers and thieves in power. But you know, for me it’s different; I can fit in the system, if you know what I mean. I can earn in Kazakhstan more than I could abroad.”

Yet if the situation is good in big cities, including the new Kazakh capital Astana, certain parts of Kazakhstan, such as South Kazakhstan and Aral Sea area are struggling with poverty and health problems. The Aral Sea, dried out when the former Soviet Union diverted the Amu Dariya and the Syrdariya - the rivers which fed the Aral Sea - to grow cotton in the desert. Cancer, lung disease and infant mortality are 30 times higher than they used to be because the drinking water is heavily polluted with salt, cotton fertilisers and pesticides. Minor Aral Sea - smaller part of the former second biggest lake in the world - is reviving in result of the World Bank and UN joint efforts. In that area, people with poor health and no jobs, there is nostalgia for Soviet times. The state consistently cuts off social benefits for the people that suffered from the Aral Sea disaster, Semipalatinsk nuclear tests, and other problem zones. Almaty itself, with its booming construction, expensive cars and fancy coffee-places, has a visible gap between the city’s rich and poor, some of whom are living in illegally built houses in suburbs and fighting the state for their right to remain in these houses.

Comparing with other Central Asian states, Kazakhstan looks like a stable country with developing economy. Migrant workers from Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan come to Kazakhstani cities to earn money. A closer look though reveals high level of corruption in all spheres and a lack of market freedom, which makes the investment in real estate the only option for investors. There is rampant state control of media and oil resources, persecution of dissent and seemingly open but limited access to decision-making for women. For Western states that are losing their credibility in the region, Kazakhstan might seem like a means of getting the trust back by electing it for an OSCE chairmanship, for instance. Though insiders say that in fact, this encouragement would not do good for the country, where Government might use it for legitimating its grip on power.

“I, my friends and family, are happy with the progress made since 1991″, admits Adil. “It is due to the improvement of quality of life in the cities and emerging consumer’s society with a better choice. It’s different in rural area, though. And it’s easy to see how the situation with political and civic freedoms got worse comparing to early 1990s. It’s also easy to imagine how much happier we could be if the distribution of oil income was transparent, if courts were fair and elections free. I see the progress but I am disappointed with its limited character”.