With the withdrawal of a strategic military base from Kyrgyzstan last month, the United States is in need of vital support in Central Asia — support which Moscow and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization could provide.

Indeed, there is an easy overarching argument to be made: both parties have vested interests in ensuring that Afghanistan does not become unstable, hence a strong factor in pushing towards some form of collaboration.

Already, America has shown some signs of reciprocation at the Hague Conference on the Afghan issue a few days ago.  The US State Department recently called for “new diplomacy powered by partnership and premised on shared interests” and “enterprise of collective action in the interest of collective security”.  But is a new sunrise of partnership really upon the horizon?

SCO expert Alexander Lukin argues that despite shared interests, there are still deep divisions between the White House and the Kremlin, to the point where the striving for partnership could itself produce friction between both powers.

For now, it is more likely that America and Russia will continue on this track of “resetting” their ties and starting afresh. Obama and Medvedev’s successful hallmark meeting strengthens the possibility of the countries moving towards a closer bilateral relationship, especially in terms of cooperation in Afghanistan.

However, in terms of the larger Central Asian sphere, the chances of US-SCO or NATO-SCO collaboration are much lower given the West’s suspicion and uneasiness in dealing with the SCO.  Indeed, the SCO’s reputation as the “NATO of the east” or even a  “neo-Warsaw Pact” renders difficult any attempt of Western formal recognition of, much less alliance with, the organization; simply, the West may just not be ready for such a move.

The key question, then, is not so much whether there should be a partnership, but what kind?

Editor’s note: This is the second of a post series.