A map of the internet bearing a curious reminiscence to a neural virus. Image by the Opte Project, courtesy of Flickr user curiouslee (CC-usage).

Editor’s note: Has Turkmenistan come down with a bad case of the swine flu?  neweurasia’s Annasoltan investigates in this fifth part of a post series on Turkmen healthcare.  Previously, neweurasia’s Timur and Bakhrom debated whether the disease in Kyrgyzstan is a serious threat.  Read the rest of our ongoing coverage on the disease here.

Yesterday I explored the similarities between 2003’s avian flu crisis in China and today’s on-going swine flu crisis in Turkmenistan.  To review: In 2003, when the Chinese government tried to cover up the avian flu outbreak, the result was a public relations disaster. History is now repeating itself in Turkmenistan.

But there is a deeper level going on here.  Just as in China, as the Turkmen government tries to repress information about swine flu, the Turkmen people are turning to the internet for answers.  The results could be perilous for the future of the regime.

A tale of two countries

Obviously comparisons with China shouldn’t be stretched too far.  Turkmenistan is obviously a lot smaller in every way, especially population and internet access.  The Chinese government is also, in its own way, more open than the Turkmen government.

However, both governments lack accountability and both are prone to shadowy decision-making and repressive controls of their respective populations.  Indeed, the extent of their control is usually very impressive and, to outside observers, disturbing.

Moreover, both governments seemed to have miscalculated the strength of new media to challenge their authority.

Another deadly virus…

There is no doubt that, although the Turkmenet’s number of participants is small, the internet is having a democratizing impact on the whole of society.  Considering the Turkmen government’s established reputation as a social controller par excellence, it’s surprising that the authorities have allowed the Turkmenet to go on this long unchecked.

A few weeks ago, neweurasia’s Schwartz wrote a speculative editorial exploring the question of why the Turkmen government seems to be allowing so much dissent on the internet.  He explored several possible reasons but I think that the swine flu may be revealing the real one: the government has underestimated the depth and power of online discontent.

In light of the Turkmenet’s role in the public response to the swine flu, the question now is: how long will the Turkmen authorities allow it to continue unregulated?

… or is it all part of the plan?

Some are worried about how long they will be able to use this new freedom.  After all, what meaning should be read into all the government’s contradictory moves these last several months?  That includes not only its mishandling of the swine flu (or is it really?) but also its seemingly altruistic new internet policy.

My neweurasia colleague Schwartz suggested to me, in preparation for another upcoming editorial, that perhaps the Berdimuhammedov government, while being no less ideological than its Niyazov predecessor, is more pragmatic and may be following a Deng Xiapong model:

Strange as this sounds, they may really be sincere in their new internet policy: Berdimuhammedov and company may actually view a certain amount of freedom to be necessary for democracy.  The threat, then, would come from more, shall we say, ‘conservative’ elements of the Turkmen government.  Especially after the chaos of the swine flu crisis they may accuse the Berdimuhammedov regime as being too ‘liberal’ or development-crazy, consequently allowing the country to slip into instability.  That might force the hand of the regime to crack down again.

A media expert from Turkmenistan, remarking to me on condition of anonymity, agrees with Schwartz:

This contradiction seems to hint at different groups among the leadership. There are still a few people left  at the top from Niyazov’s years. But, in the whole, the officials see that it is impossible to work without the Internet globally. How long can they stand in the way of advanced technologies? They have to give in. It’s a powerful force.

A few years ago, people had no mobile telephones.  But now almost all school children have one. There is a huge information vacuum and if the parents can afford it, they want to provide their children with modern communication technologies.

However, Farid Tuhbatullin, head of the Vienna-based Turkmen Initiative for Human Rights, is doubtful.  He does not see sincere reform or any kind of liberal/conservative divide.  He remarked to me:

It’s indeed complicated to understand this government, Doing one thing with the one hand and doing another thing with the other. The government’s Internet promise serves as a signal to the foreign countries and international organizations to claim that Turkmenistan is undergoing democratic reforms.  But, if the internet was allowed to spread, whatever the reason, the people still would benefit from it.. For this service is utmost important for students and specialists.

A Turkmen political scientist, remarking to me on condition of anonymity, agrees with Tuhbatullin:

The Internet is a tool for the government to advertise itself on the international scene. There is a huge  difference between the official words and deeds.  I can’t access Ashgabad by Skype from outside. There are still people in the country who have never heard about the Internet. But even if the Internet makes inroads by the pace of a turtle, it would be a gain. The government cannot completely control information.

Turkmenistan’s real flu

Whatever the truth behind the Turkmen government’s new internet policy, and whatever the difficulties the Turkmenet faces now or will face in the future, the internet is already demonstrating its potential to become a powerful tool for advancing freedom and challenging abuses of power.  The Turkmen government may now be learning the hard way that in the modern age viruses are the ultimate anarchists, obeying no one’s rules — and that the internet may be the most viral creature of all.

In 2003, the Chinese government had to apologize and admit that trying to cover up the breakout was a mistake, because efforts to control the news can lead to uncontrollable consequences.  Today, as the swine flu crisis continues, the image of Berdimuhammedov apologizing to the public on Turkmen television no longer seems like an impossibility.