A Color Revolution in Tajikistan? Be very careful…
Politics and Society, Tajikistan6 Comments
Gustave Wapper's famous painting depicting the Belgian Revolution.
Editor’s note: The Tajikistan opposition is furious at the recent parliamentary election results and is planning massive protest actions across the country. However, neweurasia’s Dushanbe, who has been following the controversy, advises caution: the opposition must very careful not to open themselves to accusations of fomenting a Color Revolution. Check out his earlier report here, as well as Alpharabius’ now disappointed hopes from before the election.
Three political parties — the Islamic Revival Party (IRP), the Social-Democrats Party (SDP), and the Democratic Party (DP) — say that the election was marred by mass fraud and the results were falsified. As the first step of protest, the two parties have already declared that they are leaving the Public Council, the coalition that was established by the government in 1996 for peace-building consensus. They are planning massive rallies, strikes, court debates, and even a boycott of the new parliament itself.
- Muhiddin Kabiri, the leader of the IRP, is harshly criticizing the supposed landslide victory of the ruling People’s Democratic Party, which is led by the current president. It won 85% of the seats, while IRP, one of the larger opposition parties, will only have two seats. Mr. Kabiri believes that in reality the IRP won at least about 30 seats in the parliament.
- Rahmatillo Ziyorov, the leader of the SDP, wonders how it was possible that his party candidates received 150,000 votes in Dushanbe yet received 22,000 around the country. It’s an important question, because according to the official results, his party has not passed the 5% barrier required to enter the parliament.
- Massoud Sobirov, the chairman of DP, demands to recount votes in four different constituencies. He believes this simple check will reveal systemic fraud on the part of election authorities.
They are backed by the complaints of Western observers, who believe that widespread violations occurred, including ballot stuffing and proxy voting.
For its part, the Central Election Commission of Tajikistan has denied any wrongdoing. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is also supporting the results, ruling against 38 election complaints. The election results are also being supported from the Russian, China, and other post-Soviet observers.
Despite the very real anger and the desire to defend the votes of their supporters, I think the opposition parties should be careful about which protest methods they choose. They are already being accused of preparing another “Color Revolution”. Furthermore, the government has already stated that it will not tolerate any public demonstrations, and I think the West will be sympathetic to any crackdowns because they need Tajikistan as a supply route for NATO forces in Afghanistan.
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Can you please tell me the source where you are getting information that the opposition is planning “massive” protests? Most of the reports I have seen seem more muted and indicate that they are going to try the legal process before trying to stage protests. I am only reading things in English though so perhaps there is more information out there in Russian – I would be really interested to know. Also, it seems rather unlikely that they would have a large following for protests. I know emotions might be running higher now because of the economy, but it does not seem like there has been that much momentum with protests in Tajikistan in the past… Given that I am obviously not Tajik though, I could be wrong.
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Dushanbe Reply:
March 4th, 2010 at 8:06 pm
@Teresa,
Dear Teresa. Read please this report published almost simultaneously with mine:
DUSHANBE (Reuters) — Tajikistan’s opposition threatened today to call street protests to challenge the result of a parliamentary election in the impoverished nation bordering Afghanistan.
Any unrest in Tajikistan could worry the West, which uses the Muslim nation of seven million as part of a northern route supplying NATO troops fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Western monitors have denounced the February 28 vote for failing democratic standards. President Emomali Rahmon’s party won 54 out of 63 seats in the lower house of parliament.
The opposition Islamic Revival Party — Central Asia’s only official Islamic party — won only two seats and has vowed to challenge the result in court.
“If the courts take unfair decisions, we can organize public acts of protest as well as other actions within the country’s legislation,” said the party’s leader Mukhiddin Kabiri.
Speaking at a party meeting, he said he would take legal action as soon as this week but gave no further details.
Kabiri’s party is a reformed wing of the once-powerful United Tajik Opposition which fought Rahmon’s government in a 1992-1997 civil war. More than 100,000 people died in that war.
Spurred by an economic crisis, discontent has been on the rise in Tajikistan in the past year because of growing poverty and crumbling Soviet-era infrastructure.
The inflow of remittances, one of the country’s key sources of foreign currency, dropped almost by a third in 2009.
Despite growing hardship, outward gestures of protest remain rare in a country where Rahmon tolerates little dissent.
The election monitoring arm of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said on March 1 that serious irregularities meant Tajikistan’s parliamentary election failed to meet basic democratic standards.
The opposition has said it had evidence of mass vote rigging. The central election commission has rejected all criticism, saying it had no evidence of large-scale violations.
Rahmon has ruled Tajikistan, the poorest nation in the ex- Soviet Union with an average monthly wage of $70, since 1992.
Signaling a possible succession plan to his long rule, Rahmon’s 23-year-old son Rustami Emomali was elected into the capital Dushanbe’s city council in a separate election held on February 28, the central election commission said.
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[...] at the recent parliamentary election results and is planning massive protest actions. However, Dushanbe advises caution: the opposition must be very careful not to open themselves to accusations of fomenting a [...]
“depicting the Belgian Revolution.”
Ohlàlààà… One wouldn’t wish thàt to Tajikistan really. :)lol
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Schwartz Reply:
March 7th, 2010 at 4:39 pm
@Turgai, maybe the Tajik opposition can throw braadworsten at the government eat Vlaamse stoofkarbonaden in protest. ;-)
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Turgai Reply:
March 8th, 2010 at 11:44 am
@Kara, as long as the braadworsten and stoofkarbonaden are halal, fine.;)
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