Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea fleet is being extended, both through international assistance and domestic construction of new patrol vessels. But from which of the five littoral states does Kazakhstan need protection?

The last notably serious military incident in the Caspian dates back to the 24th of July 2001, when an Iranian gunboat ordered BP research vessels under an Azeri contract out of waters that both countries claim. Iranian jetfighters had circled above the two boats before.

Nevertheless, the most immediate threat Kazakhstan faces does not come in the form of inter-state conflict. Rather, terrorist activity in the region is regarded as the prime reason for extending the Kazakh military. Soft targets such as the growing oil infrastructure in the North Caspian could potentially be at risk:

Given that the largest concentration of U.S. commercial investment in the former Soviet Union is in oil production facilities in western Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan’s ability to deter or respond to a terrorist attack should be an issue of U.S. concern.

It is thus not terribly surprising that the United States have just delivered three patrol vessels worth $2 milion.

While counter-terrorism remains a priority, there is no guarantee that despite Kazakhstan’s multi-vectored foreign policy, relations with all other littoral states will remain as a good as they are:

Caspian security cannot be based on the hope that the neighborhood will continue to be politically stable or the neighbors benevolent.

There are, however, certain practical problems relating to the militarisation of the Kazakh part of the Caspian Sea. The first, probably easiest to overcome, concerns some rather embarassing technical difficulties:

May 24 (Itar-Tass) - Kazakh shipbuilders in Uralsk failed to launch a newly-built patrol boat of the Bars series for border guards on Wednesday.

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The 41-metre-long boat, built at Zenit, should roll on special trolleys to River Chagan, but they can’t withstand its weight.

The boat Sardar (Warrior) is the biggest warship ever built in Kazakhstan. With a water displacement of 210 tonnes, it can sail at a speed of 28 knots through sea swells of up to seven points and ice in the Northern Caspian.

The more difficult issue at stake is that competing authorities in Kazakhstan do not seem to share the same dedication and long-term vision for the embryonic Kazakh navy. Persisting rivalries between the Ministry of Defense and the KNB as well as infighting and problems within the Kazakh Military Institute will probably be main problems for the creation of a unified and capable Kazakh navy.

It goes somewhat without saying that the growing militarisation of the Caspian Sea could lead to some nasty regional developments:

Given the explosive growth of oil infrastructure in Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea Region, the need to develop a comprehensive security system is becoming evident. There are those who are concerned that the sea is already becoming militarized and this in itself is a danger to regional stability.