The H5N1 virus is a far more dangerous variant of the H1N1 "swine flu". Yet, somehow, pigs have caused more terror in the citizens of Turkmenistan than chickens -- a terror seemingly beyond the control of one of the world's most repressive regimes. Image courtesy of Flickr user Quiplash (CC-usage).

Editor’s note: Has Turkmenistan come down with a bad case of the swine flu?  neweurasia’s Annasoltan investigates in this third part of a post series on Turkmen healthcare.  During this past weekend, neweurasia’s Timur and Bakhrom debate whether the disease is a serious threat.  Read the rest of our ongoing coverage on the disease here.

In yesterday’s post I discussed how the Turkmen government’s incompetent attempts to suppress the truth about swine flu deaths — whether any have occurred in Turkmenistan and, if so, how many — has backfired and actually sparked a greater panic in the country.   Yet, this is a government known for its efficient methods of repression.  This bumbling is profoundly uncharacteristic — or is it?  Today I will explore more of everyday Turkmens’ reactions to the swine flu, as well as the question of what may be going on behind the closed doors of the government.

Caught with their pants down?

For some, the Turkmen government’s persistent denial of the existence of swine flu in the country is inscrutable.  It’s certainly morally bankrupt, but as I pointed out yesterday, it’s consistent with old habits that have served the authorities well during previous crises.  We could be seeing classic habituation at work:  the government has finally been caught off guard and its old tricks aren’t working anymore.

Consider that the H5N1 scare — which was based in a lot more scientific validity, by the way — passed Turkmenistan with hardly a whimper.  So, the Turkmen authorities may have simply underestimated the population’s reaction.

This leads to the question of why has there been such a global panic about this particular bug?  There is something really unsettling about the virality of H1N1.  Even if the H1N1 is really not that much worse than regular flu, its swiftness is really startling: unlike avian flu, which was supposed to rain terror from the skies, swine flu has torn across the world with the ease of an Olympic runner.

I think those of us on the outside of the country have a tendency to make the Turkmen government seem omniscient.  It’s possible that for once the authorities have really been caught with their proverbial pants down.

Or an opportunity for further isolation?

But it just seems to strange. I keep coming back to the fact that this government is rarely surprised by anything, and if it is, the authorities certainly know how not to show it.  Nurmuhammet Hanamov, the leader of an opposition group in exile, told me another, much more disquieting interpretation:

I think the swine flu serves more as a pretext to keep the country’s doors closed.

Now, that’s more in keeping with the regime we’ve all known.  Consider the following incidents:

• This year’s pilgrimage has been canceled by the Turkmen authorities.  The Chronicles of Turkmenistan reports that pious Turkmens seeking to go to Saudi Arabia have to bribe their way out of the country.
• This past September 50 US Peace Corps volunteers were denied entry shortly before their arrival.
• his past July Turkmen students attempting to attend the American University of Central Asia in Bishkek were blocked from leaving the country.  The Chronicles reports that two Turkmen students attempting to attend the American University of Bulgaria have likewise been blocked.A

At the same time, though, the authorities seem to be doing the opposite with internet, namely, loosening their grip.  We’re seeing more and more dissent on the Turkmenet.  Even if we consider some disturbing possible reasons why, it boggles the mind.

It seems we’re stuck between two extreme and mutually contradictory interpretations: either the Turkmen government is omniscient or it’s actually quite incompetent.  I’m curious to hear reader’s opinions.  Leave a comment below!