Old man in Aksy village (Photo by Fergana.Ru)

The Kyrgyz government is planning to launch the “Kurultai of Harmony” on March 23, 2010, during which 750 community representatives throughout the whole of Kyrgyztan shall gather in Bishkek for direct dialogue with state officials.  The Kurultai shall headed by Bakiev himself.  It’s intended to to resolve several important problems.

Many people have been wondering — does the country really need it?

My personal answer is no. Why? Primarily because, considering the expense of launching the event, it is yet another unwise decision of spending taxpayers’ money.  Today, when every penny must be wisely spent, this will not help the Kyrgyz economy.

There are three other reasons why I think this Kurultai will be a total failure:

(1) Is it necessary to be physically present in order to have a Kurultai?

To begin with, a Kurultai, in its historical sense, is a national assembly or people’s council, held by tribes living in the territory of modern Kyrgyzstan (and of course Central Asia, Mongolia and southern Russia) since the reign of Genghis Khan and his descendants (approx. XII-XII centuries).

The aim of holding Kurultais was to gather in one place the many tribes’ leaders and representatives, usually united under one Khanate (or any other administrative body), to solve common problems such as electing a new leader or discussing joint military plans.

Back then, when there was no any technology we have today, no infrastructure connecting tribes together, Kurultai was the only way for the leaders and representatives all administrative bodies of one, say, Khanate to meet and discuss common issues.

However, today, when technology and infrastructure allow state leaders to travel and meet with representatives of remote regions, there is no need to gather 750 people in the capital and cover their transport, accommodation, and food expenses, etc.  Consider:

• The minimum cost of accommodation in Bishkek for one person during two days 1000 Kygyz som, minimum food expenses for two days is also about 1000 som, travel expenses in average would be 1500 som minimum = 3500 som per person/event.
• So far that’s 3500 som * 750 persons = 2 625 000 som!
• Now add the organizational expenses, which would be at least 40,000 som = 2 665 000 som!
• Now let’s be generous and say 50 people are from Bishkek, so their expenses presumably aren’t covered, so = 2 490 000 som.  That’s still a whopping ~56,000 USD at a rate of 1USD=44.5KGS!
• Besides, there must be tons of other smaller expenses, not to mention the usual corrupt officials making side money out of such events, e.g., by price-gauging.

While writing the post, I started thinking of the idea of a live televised communication of the president with the people of Kyrgyzstan instead. If Vladimir Putin could do it, why can’t Bakiev do it?  Certainly, it would cut the high expenses and also not demand so many administrative resources. It would also increase the potential number of participants from just 750 to the entire country.

(2) Is the government just trying to distract the population from the anniversary of the Tulip Revolution?

The Kurultai is scheduled for the eve of the anniversary of the Tulip Revolution, leading some people to speculate think that the Kyrgyz government may really be hoping to decrease the risk of potential demonstrations by drawing the leadership away from their normal centers of power.  The government may also be hoping to court their favor.

Consider: people in the remote parts of Kyrgyzstan may no longer believe in the central government, but rather in their local (unofficial) tribal leaders.  It just so happens that these tribal leaders were the real backbone of the Tulip Revolution.  I cannot say for certain whether distraction is the government’s goal, but it could have this side-effect anyway.

(3) Is Bakiev’s Kurultai just going to be a repeat of Akaev’s Kurultai?

I really fear that the Kurultai of Harmony will end up being a repetition of ex-president Askar Akaev’s kurultais, when regional leaders and representatives didn’t dare to speak their thoughts openly and agreed with the president on everything (real harmony, lol).