This is the translation of my article in russian.

After the April events in Kyrgyzstan in 2010, one of the questions vigorously discussed in the country is the creation of a parliamentary republic, an idea initiated by leading members of so called ‘Interim Government (IG)’. They explain their initiative through the argument that the presidential form of government has failed in practice in independent Kyrgyzstan over the last fifteen years of its existence, which is evident by the results of governance by the first and second presidents of the country. Therefore, in the members’ opinion, it is time to shift to parliamentary form of government. This will be not only more effective for Kyrgyzstan, as they assume, but also a key solution to a problem of division of power between the key members of IG.

Currently, many people think that there are three real candidates among the members of IG for the position of president of Kyrgyzstan. Those members are Atambaev, Sariev and Tekebaev. First, they are more popular among the population than the other members. Second, unlike the other members, all of them have a strong ambition to be president of Kyrgyzstan, as history attests. For instance, Tekebaev participated in almost every presidential election as a candidate during the Akaev’s rule. Moreover, many people, including some politicians and members of Ata-Meken party, whose founder is Tekebaev, predicted that he would be the next president of the country after Akaev. Regarding Atambaev, he also stood as a leading candidate in presidential elections in 2009. Moreover, when President Bakiev offered him the post of prime-minister in 2007, he agreed immediately and joined Bakiev’s team although he was in the opposition to the Bakiev regime. As for Sariev, he also ran for the presidential elections in 2009 along with Atambaev, despite the fact that all of the opposition parties, to which both belonged, decided to support Atambaev as a single united candidate from the oppositional forces in order to strengthen electoral chances of the opposition. This suggests evidence that Sariev will never relent in the fight for power.

Today, the three politicians enjoy a unique opportunity to become the head of the state because their former common political opponent, Bakiev, was ousted by the people as a result of the April events. However, this opportunity has created a struggle for power between the members of the former opposition, to which Atambaev, Sariev, and Tekebaev belonged. If previously the struggle for power took place primarily between Bakiev’s team from one side, and the opposition in the form of Atambaev, Sariev, and Tekebaev from the other, after the April events, this kind of struggle occurs among the latter three. But a solution to this problem has been found by the latter three.

Obviously, to meet their ambitions simultaneously under the form of government practiced during the Akaev and Bakiev’s rule is virtually impossible. If one of them becomes a president, a huge segment of power will be concentrated in his hand again. The two others will be deprived of real political influence and will not have other choices than to become the opposition, just as it was after the March events in 2005 when Bakiev became a president and, many people who were on Bakiev’s side against Akaev’s rule joined the opposition to Bakiev. Furthermore, unlike Akaev and Bakiev, when they were the incumbents, at the moment neither Atambaev nor Sariev nor Tekebaev is guaranteed to win the presidential elections anticipated in October 2010. They have equal chances. Unlike Akaev and Bakiev, none of them will use administrative resources against each other during the elections because all of them are currently incumbents. The best way to meet Atambaev’s, Sariev’s and Tekebaev’s ambition at this point is to shift to parliamentary form of government.

What is mentioned above makes it reasonable to assume that a more or less equal division of power among Atambaev, Sariev and Tekebaev is possible under the new form of government proposed by IG rather than the form formerly practiced in Kyrgyzstan. According to the new form of government proposed by IG, the main power will be in the hands of parliamentarians who will be elected through a proportional system. Today three parties among political parties in Kyrgyzstan have apparently the best chances for seats in parliament. Those parties are the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan, Ak Shumkar and Ata Meken whose leaders are Atambaev, Sariev and Tekebaev, respectively. This way, a new form of government leads to division of power between these three key members of IG. It means they are about to kill two birds with one stone by their attempt to create a parliamentary republic in Kyrgyzstan.