President Karimov’s mandate ends… today!
Politics and Society, Uzbekistan8 Comments
Today, 9 January 2007, marks the end of Karimov’s term as the president of Uzbekistan - at least according to the Uzbek constitution. The Uzbek parliament, however, decided back in 2002 that presidential elections are only to be held later this year, in December. There is thus an interesting divergence between legislation and constitution, reports Deutsche Welle.
Uzbekistan’s first post-independence presidential elections took place in 1991. In 1995, the parliament voted to extend President Karimov’s term until 2000. The same might be unavoidable now: In contrast to Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, the Uzbek parliament has never enacted legislation to allow the incumbent to stay in office for more than two consecutive terms.
According to the Deutsche Welle report, elections are declared taboo within the presidential administration, not least because the ‘boss’ is strangely quiet about the topic. Back in October 2006, Ferghana.ru noted that no single media outlet in Uzbekistan reported about the approaching end of term.
While another referendum granted Karimov the right to stay in power for seven, not five years in 2002, the preliminary date for elections set for the third Sunday of December 2007 obviously clashes with that provision as the last elections were held exactly seven years ago, on 9 January 2000. Thus, President Karimov, if it all stays the way it is, will have clinged on to power for an illegitimate 50 weeks, 96% of a full year, by the time elections will be held.
Karimov, who will turn 69 by the end of the month, probably does not want to step down later this year. The most likely outcome thus is that he’ll call for a referendum on yet another extension of his term. But who knows, perhaps Uzbekistan will follow suit and amend its constitution, allowing the incumbent to stay in power for more than two terms. In the end, it doesn’t really matter. Karimov is likely to use whatever means are at his disposal to find a pseudo-legitimate way to keep his position beyond 2007. Everything else would be a true surprise.
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Thanks Ben.
What had we expected then? I think that Karimov’s mandate will only effectively end the day that his, his daughter’s and their cronies’ bullet-ridden, mutilated corpses are dragged through the streets of Tashkent.
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[...] Ben Paarmann marks the expiration of the mandate of Uzbekistan’s president, Islam Karimov. The funny thing is, he still is in office, and there has been no public mention of coming elections. Ben explains what is going on, and speculates on different ways that the president may extend his time in office. Nathan Hamm [...]
Hi,
I have spoken with number of people from Uzbekistan (who is aware of what is happening inside the regime) and people in Europe about upcoming elections and what I found is pretty much obvious, his daughter is apparently replacing all key members of the regime with her followers and preparing to replace her father next year.
Karimov may not give up his post even to his daughter “so soon�, but events which are taking place in Turkmanistan may make him think twice.
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[...] As Ben has reported recently that January 9 was the last day of Islam Karimov’s term as the president of Uzbekistan - at least according to the Uzbek constitution. And Constitution clearly states that “The President of the Republic of Uzbekistan shall be elected for a term of seven years�. According to the Constitution and the date of last Presidential elections, taking into account the term was extended for two more years, the next presidential election date must be January 9 2007, which already is a part of history. The reason for that is the Uzbek parliament, which decided in 2002 that presidential elections are only to be held “in the year of the expiry of constitutional term of his power - on the first Sunday of the third ten-day period of December� (Constitution, article 117), which makes presidential term 7 years and 11 months. So, no doubt that current year is going to be decisive period of Uzbekistan’s history, even if the country meets the next New Year’s Eve with the same president. So many possible scenarios are being discussed by different analysts that it is really difficult to predict which of them is the most possible one. [...]
[...] What is the PLAN? As Ben has reported recently January 9 was the last day of Islam Karimov’s term as the president of Uzbekistan - at least according to the Uzbek constitution. And Constitution clearly states that “The President of the Republic of Uzbekistan shall be elected for a term of seven years�. According to the Constitution and the date of last Presidential elections, taking into account the term was extended for two more years, the next presidential election date must be January 9 2007, which already is a part of history. The reason for that is the Uzbek parliament, which decided in 2002 that presidential elections are only to be held “in the year of the expiry of constitutional term of his power - on the first Sunday of the third ten-day period of December� (Constitution, article 117), which makes presidential term 7 years and 11 months. So, no doubt that current year is going to be decisive period of Uzbekistan’s history, even if the country meets the next New Year’s Eve with the same president. So many possible scenarios are being discussed by different analysts that it is really difficult to predict which of them is the most possible one. [...]
If Karimov installs his daughter as president I don’t think she’ll last a year. From what I’ve heard it seems she’s mocked, even hated, by most Uzbeks, and I can’t see her effectively winning any power struggle amongst the elites once her dad is gone.
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I agree with Brian. To start with, she is the key figure of the economic empire of the Karimovs and even more depraved adn wicked than senior. And her decadent lifestyle is a conscious provocation and humiliation, spitting in the face of the Uzbeks.
She has her fans though: http://enews.ferghana.ru/article.php?id=979
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Hi Ben,i think karimov wanna be like “saddam hussein”.People of uzbekistan very scared to say anything about him in public.He rules
country wich IRON FIRST.I wish we had real democracy in uzbekistan.
The people live in poverty,and they can’t wait till hi leaves that post
as a president.I think hi will remain till hi dies,or till somebody gotta kill this motherfucker.
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