The day before the official start of the SCO summit, Dushanbe served as apparently “unpromising surroundings” for Russian diplomatic outreach to the region, and caught the the attention of some western media as a result. The Financial Times went to the trouble of (rather randomly) calling the Moscow branch of the Heritage Foundation to obtain this analysis:

“Russia’s main aim is to get support from the organisation for its military action and approval in one form or another for recognising South Ossetian [and Abkhazian] independence…It is clear that Russia is using it [the SCO] as a counterweight to the west in the conflict and its recognition of South Ossetia [and Abkhazia].’’

As dramatic and exciting as that sounds, who really believes that the SCO can or wishes to be a “counterweight” to the West? President Rahmon talked up the importance of the SCO, but seemed to think more along the lines of “non-alliance [and] non-confrontation.” While Russia may have always intended the SCO as a counterbalance to NATO, it isn’t in reality. So is it really worth repeating? Some more scholarly opinions on both sides can be found here, from the Council on Foreign Relations.

Either way, Tajikistan will not just automatically join the Russian cause reflexively.  AFP noted the awkward position of the Central Asian republics in dealing with a country that they declared independence from less than two decades ago:

Central Asian leaders have kept a low-profile during Russia’s confrontation with Georgia.

The region has its own separatist issues and siding with Russia could harm vital economic and security ties with the West.

The FT also highlights the presence of separatists and a weak central government as major influences on Tajikistan’s current attitude, as well as a desire to not offend major donors of foreign aid.

Moreover, China just proved it is not a rough nation in the eyes of the world by hosting a widely praised Olympics. As long as Tajikistan has a best friend in China, on everything from fighting crime to getting more energy, who needs to be nice to Russia anyway?

Ah, but don’t forget reality too. On Friday, Medvedev will be visiting a Russian military base- still in Tajikistan.