Photograph by Flickr user twiga269 (CC-usage).

Editor’s note: As horse trading continues in Kyrgyzstan, neweurasia’s Marat has been quietly observing from the sidelines. He wonders whether the failure of the initial round of coalition-building has something slightly fishy behind it. “The bemusing factor in this issue is, of course, the number of votes cast ‘for’ and ‘against’ , and simple math reveals that two MPs have not voted,” he writes. “A question arises—why not?”

I was both confused and entertained when I heard the first coalition did have the majority of votes (67 MPs out of 120), yet failed to appoint its own candidate Omurbek Tekebayev the speaker of parliament. This (planned?) failure reveals many factors including, but not limited to, certain discontentedness with the very candidacy of Tekebayev, internal divisions and lack of integrity inside the parties and the “opposition” parties’ potential role in disintegrating the coalition.

The bemusing factor in this issue is, of course, the number of votes cast “for” and “against”: 59 ballots “nay” and 58—“yay” and 1 invalid ballot paper (no wonder, we are talking about MPs here…). A simple math reveals that two MPs have not voted. A question arises—why not? Do not feel compelled to vote for a speaker and finally start acting for the benefit of the country and voters?

Juggling with figures further, it is seen that while 59 “nay” votes were cast, the two parties outside the coalition—Ata Jurt and Ar Namys—are only 53-MP strong with 28 MPs and 25 MPs respectively. Two “anonymous” Republika MPs said they voted against Tekebayev “based on inner” feelings although they were in the coalition. But the remaining figure is still higher than fifty-three. Twenty-six MP-strong SDPK, the coalition-forming party, later said 100% faction members voted “For” Tekebayev. Although Ata Meken has not released any information in this regard, it is still clear that all of the 18 MPs have voted in favor of their faction leader. Hence, 26 SDPK plus 18 Ata Meken make up 44 votes in favor of Tekebayev out of 58 “yes” votes. We are missing 14 more ballot papers’ origin. If two Respublika MPs, I will remind that they were part of the coalition, have voted “Against” Tekebayev, that leaves one to expect 21 Respublika MPs voting in favor of the coalition’s nominee. However, SDPK+Ata Meken+14 votes were cast in the candidate’s favor, not 21. Now, if all the 14 “yay” ballots came from Respublika, given that Ar Namys and Ata Jurt logically voted against the candidate, then we are having a situation where 7 more coalition members were, for unknown reasons, against their own speaker nominee. So, the “yes” votes: 26 from SDPK, 18 from Ata Meken and 14 from Respublika, clear!

Now let us look at the 59 “no” votes: the non-coalition members’ votes, given they all voted, fall short of 59 by six. We add Ata Jurt’s 28 and Ar Namys’ 25 and Respublika’s 2 and get 55; the origins of 4 “no” ballot papers are unknown at the moment. However, a short calculation reveals that even if the missing two MPs who did not vote and the single invalid ballot were from Respublika, then out of the remaining 20 Respublikans 14 presumably voted “yes”, two admitted voting “no” and the rest four, turns out to be, also voted “no” and this is precisely the figure “six” we are missing in the 59=28+25+6 equation.

After the coalition collapsed in less than a week and during the very first parliamentary session, President Roza Otumbayev handed Ata Meken the right to form a parliamentary coalition and government. Tekebayev, being a smart politician, realizes he cannot form a coalition with the ingredients he has in hands, which will also hurt his image. After his refusal, the president granted her former fellow party member Omurbek Babanov to form the coalition. More surprises and no progress ahead!