What are they so happy about?
Politics and Society, Uzbekistan14 Comments
This post is in direct response to Ben’s piece below, and poses a hypothesis to answer this question: Assuming we are to believe public opinion polling, why do Uzbeks tend to be so happy?
According to public opinion polls by the UNDP, they are the happiest people in Central Asia. The recent report Ben writes about puts them at third happiest in the region.
Now, I am the first to be skeptical of these studies, but it is interesting to note that there is some economic theory behind the notion that they might in fact be as happy as they say they are. Carol Graham of the Brookings Institution studies this exact question in depth. In one of her articles, she explains “The Easterlin Paradox�:
While most happiness studies find that within countries wealthier people are, on average, happier than poor ones, studies across countries and over time find very little, if any, relationship between increases in per capita income and average happiness levels… Thus, a common interpretation of the Easterlin paradox is that humans are on a ‘hedonic treadmill’: aspirations increase along with income and, after basic needs are met, relative rather than absolute levels of income matter to well-being.
Put in simpler terms, this theory says that people tend to care more about how well off they are compared with their countrymen than they do about their absolute status. Highly stratified economies will produce lots of people disgruntled by the fact that there are so many better off than they.
Now let’s take a look at the Gini coefficients for Central Asia. Basically, the lower the Gini, the more equal the society.
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Uzbekistan – 26.8
Kyrgyzstan – 29
Kazakhstan – 31.2
Tajikistan – 34.4
Turkmenistan – 40.8
The United States has the exact same Gini as Turkmenistan, by the way. For comparison, the UK is at 36, France is at 32.7, and Russia is at 45.6.
According to this theory, Uzbekistan’s public opinion polls make perfect sense. Sure, things aren’t that great, but times are difficult for everybody.
Naturally, this connection is just an idea, and it would take exhaustive research to even suggest such a connection. But it is still interesting to note this consistency.
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Excellent post James. The NEF’s HPI has three components, of which happiness is one. Uzbekistan is also the happiest Central Asian nation according to their data, just their ecological footprint is not as good as e.g. Taj’s or Kgz’s.
The correlation between happiness and income distribution sounds fairly straightforward to me. It would be interesting to see whether a model could prove this internationally. But then again, I missed many of my econometrics classes…
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[...] What are they so happy about?Neweurasia.net, Europe - Jul 17, 2006According to public opinion polls by the UNDP, they are the happiest people in Central Asia. … Now let s take a look at the Gini coefficients for Central Asia. … [...]
This idea is perfectly congruent with what has been found in psychology among individuals. People are much more concerned with relative levels of wealth rather than absolute ones. Sharp observation, James!
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According to this theory, Uzbekistan’s public opinion polls make perfect sense. Sure, things aren’t that great, but times are difficult for everybody.
To a point, Lord Copper : it is disturbingly reminiscent of the old Soviet attitude that since everyone was more or less equally impoverished there was little by way of popular discontent caused by extreme juxtapositions of wealth and poverty. For the same reason crime was held to be non-existent as the USSR wasn’t a materialist culture.
Yet grievances in Uzbekistan are less to do with differences in personal wealth and more to do with the painful transition from an all-embracing social-welfare system to (in theory) a free-market economy. Unfortunately, Uzbekistan seems to be stuck somewhere in the middle – current social welfare programmes aren’t a patch on the old Soviet sytem and neither has the marketplace provided viable, affordable replacements.
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Clarification: this post was 100% descriptive, and no part prescriptive. I certainly did not mean to even imply that as policy in Central Asia or elsewhere we should therefore go for equality at the expense of all else, and I agree with your points Nick completely. My point was very narrow; I was merely saying, “Hey, if we believe those public opinion polls to be mostly true, I wonder if the relatively high levels of equality in Uzbekistan could account for some part of that.” For many reasons, including the ones you point out, the “therefore” would open up a whole different can of worms even if this hypothesis were true.
So no arguments with those points here…
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Don’t worry James, I didn’t have my claws out anyway … ;-)
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Those are all very good points, but they miss a much more essential one.
Anyone who has lived in Uzbekistan knows that there is an all-pervasive climate of fear, including fear of informants. No Uzbek is ever going to willingly offer up their true opinios immediately, not least to something as outwith their normal experience as an opinion polling organisation. And everyone knows that the correct answer is that everything is perfect in Karimov’s Uzbek paradise and they are very, very happy – and that any other answer could be dangerous.
I agree that, in more normal circumstances, perception of well-being is relative to others of whom one has experience. But again, those of us who have lived there know that Uzbeks – pretty well all Uzbeks – are very acutely aware of the ever widening gap between them and Kazakhs in standard of living, and that the once despised, “provincial” Kazakhs are much wealthier. This is a source of much Uzbek angst – but not likely to be expressed to someone asking on the street.
I am not an academic, but have been astonsihed how much academic work on Uzbekistan is based on very dubious data from two sources – either nonsensical government statistics, or equally dubious public opinion surveys. Forgetting the well-financed regime propagandists like Starr and Cornell, even recent work by the usually excellent Fiona Hill has suffered from uncritical reliance on such data.
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Craig,
Agreed. I actually made that same argument a few posts back:
I think that opinion polls should be taken in context, especially when they are implemented in more difficult parts of the world. Naturally, in Uzbekistan it doesn’t make sense to accept them as the gospel truth. That doesn’t mean they should be discounted, either.
In this case I just thought the fact that the statistics can be backed up by economic theory was interesting and worth drawing attention to.
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I believe the poll. The less people have the less they need to be happy, don’t you think?
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So how do we know what’s really going on in Uzbekistan or, more pertinently, who can we trust? NGOs are being closed at a rate of knots, most reputable news organisations have withdrawn under official pressure, and government statistics seem to have been subjected to (ahem!) “creative accounting”. Meanwhile, the ‘all pervasive climate of fear’ precludes many Uzbeks from really speaking their minds.
That generally leaves dissidents, emigres, exiles, ex-diplomats and representatives of the business community as the most prominent voices of opinion on events un Uzbekistan, when what we really want (and this is the point of Neweurasia) are the thoughts and opinions of Uzbeks themselves, uncoloured by official influence or fear of the consequences.
A utopian ideal, maybe, but worth persevering with.
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Craig Murray and James are right: don’t underestimate the factor of widespread self-censorship, especially in countries under state terror like Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Related to this, there is a certain Soviet doublethink lingo that people use and that one needs to understand the correct way. For example, the common bromide «вÑ?Ñ‘ нормалное, вÑ?Ñ‘ под контрол!» (everything is fine and under control) de facto means: «why should I trust you enough to tell you how it really is; so don’t bother me!»
Also, much like in other, non-Soviet Oriental societies, people often reply in function of: their wishful thinking; or what they think that you, or those higher up, would like to hear.
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I think it is true that one should take such data with a proper grain of salt.
However, the equally surprising life satisfaction data for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan would render self-censorship in Uzbekistan as the only explanation for “Why are they so happy” rather unlikely.
Of course Ataman is right when referring to a ‘double-think lingo’. But one shouldn’t forget that the phenomenon “poor-but-happy” can be seen in other and more democratic countries than Uzbekistan. Also – it is important to note that Uzbeks are only comparatively happy. Most industrialised nations have higher life satisfaction ratings.
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[...] Meanwhile, the results of a rather dubious public opinion poll were published. Nathan of Registan reports that, according to the findings, the overwhelming majority of Uzbeks are content with their constitution and the rule of law in their country. A news outlet now speculates whether there exists another Uzbekistan somewhere on the face of this planet. While the results of this particular poll are questionable, more independent and neutral ones have found that Uzbeks are really on average happier with their lives than other people from the former Soviet Union, as was reported some while ago on neweurasia. [...]
[...] Meanwhile, the results of a rather dubious public opinion poll were published. Nathan of The Registan reports that, according to the findings, the overwhelming majority of Uzbeks are content with their constitution and the rule of law in their country. A news outlet now speculates whether there exists another Uzbekistan somewhere on the face of this planet. While the results of this particular poll are questionable, more independent and neutral ones have found that Uzbeks are really on average happier with their lives than other people from the former Soviet Union, as was reported some while ago on neweurasia. [...]