This is an article which was published on the Uzbek language blog some time ago and I was planning to translate it. But for some reason it was getting late and late…

I always wonder if Karimov ever wonders whether he is wrong and ever wants to step back and take the right step. I guess not. In my view, one of the reasons behind the development and democracy is to have independent institutions (like all democratic countries have), e.g. media, opposition party for the current governing part, police… they are all independent and can show each others’ wrongdoings. So, the governing party tries not to do any wrong, if they do – people have the power not to elect them to the government. It is not a rocket science, is it?

So what does Karimov want?

The answer to this question does sound very simple. To keep this simplicity, in order to answer the question we will have to answer: what does president Karimov not want? And we will list the things that Karimov doesn’t want with sub headings.

Democracy and freedom of press

Keep in mind that any form of today’s understanding of democracy is danger to the current regime, in particular for Karimov. Having a democratic opposition party in Uzbekistan isn’t necessary. To Karimov, the situation in Uzbekistan would be dangerous if there was only ten percent freedom or even being in process. Because any form, even the smallest, voice of demonstration against him is a symbol of majority of Uzbeks who are not happy with his regime. Today, there is no any form of free media sources in Uzbekistan. Offices of foreign radio stations (BBC, Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, and Voice of America) closed down. Journalists are made (forced) to leave the country. All these happened right after the Andijan Massacre. Andijan made Karimov understand that the “word� (democracy) he hates can be so disastrous and he was shaken up by it. But, Karimov has faced this threat since he became the president of Uzbekistan.

If you look at the events in Tajikistan, Namagan (province in Fergana valley) and Afghanistan… all of these were against his family (cronies) and this family’s “Sovietâ€? values. With Russian traditions (moderately far from Uzbeks’) – one should not forget that this person geow up with greatly developed and wrongly shaped (negative) Uzbek values. Like his fellow men, say, like former foreign minister Abdulaziz Komilov, he did not study in Moscow or worked in Moscow and he hadn’t been in foreign countries before he became a president.

According to politicians who know him well, in small and private groups called used to him “Uzbek – who was made to be Uzbekâ€?. His native language is almost Russian, but I repeat he is the man who has all the negative habits of Uzbeks. Any type, in particular people who grew up with the entirely negative attributes of all Asian nations will never accept democracy – governed by the people. If we count some of these negative values – ‘Do not oppose anyone who is older then you!’, ‘Listen what elderly say and respect it’ (not respect them if they are right!) and etc.

One example: a few years ago a natural disaster took place in Shahimardon. Karimov visited the place. Smiled. And said… “Look, if ministers come from Tashkent, welcome them, entertain them, be nice to them, ask them to help you, it is our tradition…� to ordinary people in Shahimardon. In Shahimardon, according to unofficial figures, hundreds of people died. Head of state was saying (translating his words), in this country everyone bribes each other, so you should also bribe officials then they will sort out your problems.

With this attitude will the president tolerate people’s government – democracy and or whoever dares to publish these words? No! Conclusions: what does negative traditions of Uzbeks give to Karimov and his family? What about democracy?

Islam

President Karimov hadn’t even dreamt about Islamic values till the late 80s. One of the politicians from his circle once said, “We used to see Islam as a something very backward and therefore we were in the front line of the party�. Karimov was the best among those in the front line. Do you remember the events that took place in Namangan in the early 90s? This is described as a president’s heroic act in Uzbek media.

“Islamists� like Tahir Yuldash and Juma Namangoniy drew him into discussion. I wasn’t shocked when I saw the video records of those events, inside Tahir Yuldash tapped Karimov on his shoulder and took his promises. Karimov was hardly speaking. “If people want, we will build an Islamic country�, said Karimov.

One of my physiologist friend saw these recordings and his observations were very interesting. One of his clients used to be frequent passenger flying between Tashkent and Moscow. Once, he experienced very sudden turbulence on the plane and that two minutes turbulence scared that 38 year old man out of his wits. After he finished his business in Moscow, he returned home by train. He never flew again. Anything moving scares him. Karimov also can not face crowd (especially people with long beards among them) since those events. Today any form of Islam frightens him, and this fear is behind the Andijan massacre, imprisoning thousands of people. And he believes that democracy will frighten him in the same way – because Islam can live and grow in democratic society.

West and East

Have you ever given a toy to kids and watched them? First thing they want is to show off to their friends. Not only kids in their neighbourhood, but to kids in other neighbourhood too. Presidency of Uzbekistan was that the new toy for Karimov. And basically, he was then saying that he would play with his modern western friends, to his former master – Russia… he developed relationships with his neighbours in the same way. Obviously he started looking for place to hide and ways to protect his new toy.

The relations with Russia worsened, as well as with his neighbours. Then he started flirting with the West and America. He started doing everything possible to keep himself in power. At the beginning he chose Turkey’s way of development, but after a short while he suddenly changed his mind. The main reason behind it was that the main opposition leader found a refuge in Turkey.

Andijan Massacre threatened Karimov’s power. And this fear was worse than Namangan events in early 90s. Demonstrating young kids, young-old women and men were shot dead. Then later Karimov entered without any notice to the news conference in the chief prosecutor’s office in Tashkent. It was so obvious that he still was shaking and felt that fear. That fear was so strong which made Karimov to turn his back to the West and America. America and the West had to condemn the killings. Today Uzbekistan is shutting down all the foreign NGOs and businesses. Karimov is afraid of a second Andijan. But unfortunately for him, Russia and China can not guarantee to keep him in power.