What is going on in Tajikistan? Sewing a pattern…
Politics and Society, Tajikistan14 Comments
Photograph by Flickr user Catherine Hine (CC-usage).
What is going in my country? Six Islamic militants, including a “foreign mercenary,” were killed during the anti-terror operation in the east of the country, the spokesmen of the Tajik Defense Ministry Faridun Mahmadaliev told journalists in Dushanbe yesterday. He confirmed that the special operation to”‘neutralize illegal armed groups in the Rasht Valley” is continuing.
According to authorities, these groups are responsible for a deadly ambush that killed 28 Tajik soldiers on September 19 in Kamarob. Initially, according to the authorities, the soldiers were sent to the region to hunt a group of prisoners who escaped jail in Dushanbe on August 23. However, local sources say the preparation for the operation was already under way long before the massive jailbreak. They also add that not one of the escaped prisoners are Rasht Valley natives, making the area an unlikely hideaway.
Another bit of suspicion was added when high profile government figures said the soldiers are seeking to eliminate Mullah Abdullah, a former opposition commander who did not accept the peace deal of 1997 and left the country for Afghanistan in 2000. Hunting Abdullah had also been the aim of the previous massive anti-terror operation conducted by the Tajik special forces last summer in Tavildara Valley. That mission did not succeed in capturing or killing Abdullah, but it did kill one-time Emergency Minister and former opposition field commander Mirzo Ziyoev under suspicious circumstances.
All this has led some independent newspapers in Dushanbe to dub Mullah Abdullah the “Tajik Bin Laden,” a vague phantom with the power to “appear” in other areas of the country and thus instigating new anti-terror operations resulting in more deaths problematic individuals. The authorities harshly criticized these papers, saying, “The independent papers are trying to demoralize our brave militaries, put in doubt our noble mission, and make our population hopeless.”
Yet, skepticism is a perfectly logical reaction to the situation, and here’s why.
A common thread between the two missions are the government figures behind them: Defense Minister Khairullah Sheraliev, Interior Affairs Minister Abdurahim Qahhorov, First Deputy of the Chief of the State Committee of National Security Mansurjon Umarov, and First Deputy of the Prosecutor General Abduqodir Muhammadiev. Incidentally, this entire group visited the region and met former opposition commanders Mirzokhuja Ahmadov and Shoh Iskandarov to solicit their help in finding Abdullah.
Ahmadov and Iskandarov accepted the peace deal of 1997 and worked in the Interior Ministry until 2008. Ahmadov became popular when the Special Unit of the Interior Ministry tried and failed to arrest him in February 2008. The commander of the unit, Oleg Zakharchenko, was killed during the event. Ahmadov told the public that he was innocent. He also claimed that the unit’s soldiers started firing upon his men, and in the ensuing skirmish, Zakharchenko was accidentally killed.
At the time, then Interior Minister General Mahmadnazar Solehov said he did not send the unit to arrest Ahmadov. Solehov was eventually compelled to resign, though, and then was killed in June 2009 when the government tried to arrest him. Officials said he killed himself, but the situation remains murky. According to some sources, he was considering joining the political opposition to overthrow President Rahmon.
Meanwhile, Ahmadov succeeded in convincing Rahmon that he was not connected to Solehov and was subsequently pardoned during a presidential visit to the region, which included a personal meeting between the two men, in October 2009. Because it was an oral pardon and not a formal documented decree, Ahmadov was anxious about his safety. When the criminal investigation into Zakharchenko’s death was re-opened in April 2010, he made a public appeal to Rahmon to stay true to the pardon.
By the way, it is during this visit that local sources say the first soldiers arrived, about 250 of them. Hmmmm the way the needle is sewing this thread, it seems to me that both missions, as well as the meeting with Ahmadov and Iskandarov, needed Rahmon’s green light. Ahmadov’s connection to Abdullah cannot be reassuring for the former.
Normally I hesitate to speculate, but my needle is sewing a pattern that makes me wonder whether Abdullah is even alive, much less in the country. Whatever the truth, the authorities are indeed using his name to launch suspicious operations against individuals who would have the capacity to lead an uprising against the government.
By “uprising” I generally mean social unrest, which actually could be ignited in any part of the country, but which is most likely to arise from the Rasht Valley. If it does happen there, then it could evolve into outright revolt against the government. Keep in mind that this area was a stronghold of the opposition during the civil war, and that its inhabitants, the Gharmi, were against the Kulobi clan — the clan of Rahmon.
I hope I’m wrong, but Tajikistan’s carpet is unraveling at the seams. Prices continue to rise, the Roghun project is deflating our currency and enraging our neighbors, the government is impotent, and worst of all, the winter is coming…
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This is a very good analysis.
This analysis and the evidence so far points to several things going on here: 1) a revolt by Ali Bedak and his followers in Kamarob which can be considered Islamist, as well as a response to social and political exclusion; 2) other ex-commanders such as Shoh and Ahmadov scrambling to protect themselves and their economic interests in the illicit economy; 3) and the Rahmon regime, aware of the weakness of its security forces and mindful of the Kyrgyzstan experience, fearful of the potential for rebellion and suspicious of Russia’s influence (perhaps without due cause), using the phantom Mullo Abdullo as cover for increasing its presence in the Rasht Valley.
Stating that the inhabitants of the Rasht valley were against the Kulobi clan doesn’t help much as its too great a generalisation. In 1992-93, many Rasht residents were apparently as hostile to opposition commanders, many of whom were “Gharmi” from the Qurghon Teppa region, as they were government troops. Many of the militias were formed initially as third forces, and it was partly the brutality of government forces in the Rasht valley that made them explicitly oppositional. They were never fully unified during the war and certainly not afterwards. My research there from 2003-2007 indicated that there were local strongmen in each village and town rather than a single individual or group across the whole region. Many of these figures have now gone: Nemat Azizov, Mirzo jaga; Mahmadruzi Iskandarov. Do we really expect their remnants to unite together??
So, this is not about one thing – a single, unified opposition movement nor event the potential for such a movement – but several smaller things. All this being said, it doesn’t take a fully unified movement to challenge power in Central Asia. But if the example of Kyrgyzstan teaches us anything (and I am cautious about drawing too much of a comparison) it tells us that the a successful movement of rebellion must eventually become public and involves figures from several regions. I don’t see that happening in Tajikistan, yet…
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@John H, Thank you for thoughtful comment that added value to the story. You have an excellent knowledge of many important matters. I agree with you that there is no clear signs of possible rebellion. The government is using preventive methods to secure itself. As we can see it is eliminating or intimidating any potential leader of any kind of mutiny. The regime afraid of foreign interference that could direct different groups to a singe direction.
The only point that I disagree with you is that there was a time during the war when all these groups and commanders were united under the leadership of Mirzo Ziyoev, who was appointed the commander of UTO forces by Sayed Andulloh Nuri, the head of UTO. That lead UTO to significant military victories in Tavildara and partly forced the government and Russia to boost peace negotiations.
Anyway, thanks a lot for your comments that urge me to pay more attention to the facts and problems in the future.
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John H Reply:
September 29th, 2010 at 12:45 am
@Alpharabius,
Yes, you are quite right about Ziyoev uniitng the commanders for a time and my comment that they were “never fully unified” may have incorrectly implied otherwise. They were a coherent coalition for a period – as the UTO was for a period – but both coalitions did not stay so. PWe would call this a tactical alliance. Ziyoev is now gone and, as you know, many others are now gone too. Who are the unifiying figures figures today? Ahmadov has had considerable influence in the past but I doubt that he can bring a big enough force together today and, anyway, he now appears to be public enemy number one, especially given his recent history with the Zakarchenko killing.
Anyway, thank you for your contribution.
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Alpharabius Reply:
September 30th, 2010 at 8:10 am
@John H, I was thinking to add a paragraph about logic ‘co-incidence’ of the Rasht operation and the sharp media-attack on Turajonzoda, former deputy chief of UTO and one time deputy PM. Is it a finger-pointing to the possible unifying figure?
I like your expertise.
Reply
John H Reply:
October 3rd, 2010 at 3:48 pm
@Alpharabius, From what I can tell from afar the Government of Tajikistan is using this campaign to associate its domestic opponents with the “foreign forces” that it deems ultimate responsibile for all this. It’s good that some media, such as yourselves, are analysing this as a matter of local politics – not regional Islamism. I cannot imagine that Turajonzoda is the unifying figure but it is convenient to associate him with the militants in Rasht.
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