The International Crisis Group report about the upcoming failure of Tajikistan was not a surprise for many people, since everybody knows about recent developments: energy crisis (both electricity and gas), the food crisis (the threat of famine), the immigration crisis in Russia (causing a decrease in remittances from labor migrants), and the global financial crisis (somoni loses its position). Put together, we see a clear picture of the whole social and economic situation in Tajikistan — and it is far from what is called “stability”.

Surprisingly, there is no talk about the ICG report in the local media. What is that? Our representatives of local media don’t understand English?  Perhaps, but that’s no excuse: it was reported on by external international media, not only in English but also in Russian. Specifically, Reuters reported both in English and Russian, and the article was also published in the Russian website www.centrasia.net, which is quite popular among Tajik journalists. It seems more probable that the Tajik media is in “stand by” position. Usually, this happens if there is no official reaction from the government’s side.

There was a reaction from Saifullo Safarov, an analyst “at the Center for Strategic Studies, a think tank affiliated with the Tajik president’s office”.

“There are issues that are not under control — for instance, fighting corruption is a very difficult task. But the Tajik government has been strongly fighting against corruption. Tajikistan has also been successful in structural reforms. That’s why I can’t agree with this ICG group that is trying to create crisis itself.”

This biased opinion from the main Tajik think tank shows to what extent people  in the country (especially those in the government) do not understand or do not want to understand the seriousness of the situation.

[inspic=40,leftclear,fullscreen,0] Dushanbe is going to face tougher electricity rationing. This was announced today by the electricity monopolist Barqi Tojik. Beginning from today and till undetermined period the population of Tajik capital will be supplied with eleven hours of electricity a day [rus].

“In accordance with the new schedule of electricity rationings, the micro-districts, [where most of the population lives], will be supplied with electricity from 5 a.m. to 9 a.m. and from 4 p.m. to 11 p.m.” – said the source [in Barki Tojik].

According to the source, rationing will not effect the “vital areas” (where hospitals and governmental buildings etc. are located).

This year, the electricity rationing in Dushanbe was introduced on 1st of January. You can read here and here about the reasons of introducing electricity rationing in the capital.

Last time I reported about the electricity crisis in Tajikistan in general. You can read my piece, edited by Schwartz here.

Until recently, most parts of Tajiksitan have had almost no electricity: only six hours a day. But at least what came during those six hours was steady.  Now, the situation becomes worse.

Turkmenistan cut off electricity for Tajiksitan in the beginning of the year due to an ongoing disagreement between the latter and Uzbekistan on transit electricity prices. neweurasia reports on the conflict between the two countries:

Uzbekistan is demanding 10 percent of the $0.03 per kilowatt paid by Tajikistan to Turkmenistan. The Caspian Sea state was contracted to deliver 1.3 billion kilowatts of electricity to Tajikistan for December 2008-January 2009. Turkmenistan suspended electricity exports during transit negotiations between the Tajiks and Uzbeks. In the absence of an agreement, the exports have not been resumed.

Read the full story »

Dushanbe during the night, when it has electricity. Photo made by Ravshan.

In my last post I told you about the “hatred” Tajikistanis tend to harbor toward Uzbekistan, specifically its government and foreign policy.  Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have had chronically bad relations for a while now.

Uzbekistan president Islam Karimov seems not to want to understand that he cannot secure his country’s interests while ignoring the interests of its neighbors.  Here’s a menu of examples:

Gas prices

Thanks to Uzbekistan from the beginning of this year, the cost of gas has risen 60 percent for the Tajiksitan.

According to the CA-news.org website, the gas price hike is directly related to the massive increase in the cost of imported Uzbek gas, which now costs $240 per thousand cubic meters (tcm) compared with $145/tcm in 2008.

Transit of Turkmen electricity Read the full story »

The problem of electricity cut-offs in Tajikistan was not that visible till yesterday. You know why? Because all media outlets, which more or less have influence on public opinion are based in Dushanbe. “Thanks to” the president’s decision in fall 2008, Dushanbe and some administrative centers were put out of the rationing schedule during the winter. At least he promised.

This was not fair in regards to other parts of Tajikistan but according to the government the regions can survive without electricity because they have furnaces and no electric equipment. Therefore, the media outlets in the capital neglected the coverage of electricity rationing in other parts of the country. From now on, I guess you will hear more about this problem.

Yesterday, our famous information agency Asia Plus reported that electricity rationing had been introduced in Dushanbe as well. From now on Dushanbe will receive electricity only 15 hours a day. The schedule is not prepared yet but most probably the city won’t be provided with electricity 6 hours during the nights (from 11 pm to 5 am) and 3 hours during the days. Although you won’t be able to understand the English of Asia Plus, I am giving the link to the article. Also check the related articles by Reuters and AP.

Till the recent time Dushanbe was receiving the backup electricity from Turkmenistan. However, since the president is not almighty, he can not overcome all the obstacles, especially when it comes to relations with Uzbekistan. The problem is that recently Tajikistan and Uzbekistan did not come to agreement on transit rates of Turkmen electricity and the supply was stopped.

We started to use our main hydropower station Norak at full capacity and the Norak reservoir ran out of water. Experts warn that in few weeks the level of water in the reservoir can reach the critical point when the station won’t be able to function. This station generates about 70% of electricity in Tajikistan. You can imagine what will happen when this station fully stops functioning.

When you live in Tajikistan you just hate Uzbekistan, because according to government and consequently the local media and people surrounding you, all the problems of Tajikistan are caused by Uzbekistan. I would agree at some points but in general I think Uzbekistan is a very convenient and solid justification for our authorities in all their sins.

In continuation to my story about the number of people to face hunger during the coming winter, I have found a newly published story on Eurasianet website. It says that about 20 percent of the population in Tajiksitan is going to experience a harsh winter not only because there will be a lack of electricity but also lack of food.

It gives new numbers…

Gabriella Waaijman, the Almaty-based regional disaster response advisor for the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), estimated that 2.2 million Tajiks face “increased food insecurity,” with about 800,000 vulnerable to famine conditions this winter.

Last time I was referring to Asia Plus, which reported that according to UN data about 1.3 million people a in urgent need of food assistance. Eurasianet refers to other sources of information and reports that there are 2.2 million Tajiks are in need of urgent help. The numbers substantially vary but I believe that the later number is more correct and I am afraid that it is going to increase as the winter comes closer.

Obviously coping with constant blackouts during the cold winter is no comparison to coping with little amount of food. I am afraid that some people will find themselves way back in 19th century when people had problems with food provision, especially in the mountainous areas, where problem with little amount of arable lands has been multiplied by drought this summer. Some of the farmers lost all the harvest.

During the last meeting with members of the Dushanbe legislature (Majlis), heads of local enterprises and public organizations, school principals, heads of health facilities and clerics, the mayor of Dushanbe announced that the electricity rationing throughout the country will not hit Dushanbe.

Speaking at the meeting, Ubaidulloyev said that electricity rationing introduced in the country will not hit Dushanbe.  According to him, such a decision was made by the president at the beginning of this week.

Good, but one thing makes me doubt. He says that the rationing will not be introduced, but people should use electricity rationally. Sorry, but what if the winter gets cold and we need to get warm? Obviously, we will use all electric heaters to warm our living space.

Probably, I won’t make a mistake if I say that there is no life without electricity, especially when there is no gas or any other energy substitute for it. In Tajikistan electricity is everything. We do cooking, heating, bathing, washing and more other vital things with electricity, because we do not have other energy resources. All other energy resources are imported from countries like Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russia. You never know when they stop supplying you with energy resources.

If there is no electricity, it means that we can not in most of the times eat hot food, warm up our rooms, take a bath, and wash clothes. Everything depends on electricity. Now attention. Yesterday Barqi Tojik, the Tajik electricity monopolist, announced that in order NOT to freeze during the winter we SHOULD start saving hydro-energy resources from now on.

The source at Barqi Tojik said that the measures had been introduced in all regions of the country except Dushanbe.  The new rationing has resulted in the supply of daily electricity being reduced to nine hours – four and half hours of electricity in the morning (from 3:30 a.m. to 8:00 a.m.) and four and half hours in the evening (from 5:00 p.m. to 9:30 p.m.). 

I have to remind that this is the second stricter measure taken to ration electricity. The first time, rationing was introduced on 1st of September. I reported on that. Thanks God, the weather is still warm outside. But this schedule electricity cut-offs will be a disaster for the population during the colder times.

Yesterday we celebrated our 17th independence day. Probably this is one of the main holidays in Tajikistan which is widely celebrated in our country. But many people ask themselves – do we really need this independence? When we were part of Soviet Union we had a better life: no problems with food, education, medicine, electricity, warmth, security, and finally we were confident about our future. What we have now? Almost nothing of the above mentioned.

I agree that there was a Civil War and we had a worse time, but the war ended 11 years ago. The situation doesn’t get better. We are stuck in our problems. We can not move forward. We do not have resources to be independent. Today we are dependent on everything and everyone. One example is energy. Gas comes from Uzbekistan, oil from Kazakhstan and Russia. Electricity during the winter times comes from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

We have only water to generate electricity. Scientists assure us that we have an abundance of water to generate electricity, but this summer showed that we do not have it. We can not even fill with water one reservoir – Nurek water reservoir. And, how we are going to fill some more which are going to be built: Sangtuda 1 and 2, Rogun? If we do not have enough water, what else do we have? The answer is again – almost nothing.

Then, how come that we are independent, if we depend on everything? I think, no one cares about the political independence, if there is no economic independence.

Beginning from yesterday Barki Tojik, the electricity monopolist announced that it has already introduced the electricity rationing thoughout the country. But, the capital Dushanbe and other major regional centers still enjoy the full supply of electricity. According to the head of Barki Tojik it is necessary – before the winter – to fill the major water reservoir in Tajikistan, which provides Nurek hydropower station with water to generate electricity. It is important to mention that last year, the same schedule was introduced in the end of October. And last year we had a devastating winter. Hope this year it does not get worse.